We have the best proof that the world is increasingly complicated to understand in the desperate search for thirty years for a key concept that will clarify it for us. Observe, in 1990 we concluded the “bipolar world”, thanks to the “end of the cold war”. The world was divided into East-West and North-South, and on the back of decolonization nothing less than “the third world”, the “Non-Aligned Movement”, and many other wild cards appeared. With limited success, since everything was phagocytized by a supposed bipolar world that was not completely bipolar. It doesn't matter, seen from today's perspective, around the first quarter of the 21st century, what we miss about that world is not that it was fair or democratic. What we long for is its (supposed) expository clarity as a key to any current interpretation.
Now we carry another wild card: it is called “Global South”. And it simply does not exist. Not only that, by using it for everything and its opposite it becomes an element of confusion. Joseph Nye, once again, explains it very convincingly. It is not a geographical term, and therefore it can confuse us in terms of geopolitical analysis. J. Nye says that more than fifty states in the world are above the equator (northern hemisphere therefore), and only 32 are below it. A clear majority of the world's population lives in the northern hemisphere. Among other things because India and China, the two most populated countries in the world, are here, in the north. And at the same time, if we did a worldwide survey, surely many people would place these two countries in their imagination not only in the “Global South”, but they would see them as the two greatest competitors to lead this invention. We have invented many more geopolitical wild cards, the G-7, which became the G-8 when Russia was incorporated, to become the G-7 again when it was expelled; the G-22, in its day, that if it remained in the G-20 there was a risk that middle powers (Spain for example) would not enter said club; At the time, the Brics concept entered the scene (as marketing terminology was not bad), which was supposed to include China, Russia, India and Brazil, as “emerging” economies. But only this last country belongs to the “Global South”. And by the way, are the so-called “Arab petromonarchies” of the Gulf “emerging economies”? In any case, COP28 is taking place in… Dubai. This past August, the BRICS summit already brought together 15 countries that all claimed to be “emerging economies”, including Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia. What do these last three have in common? Nothing or little, Egypt and Iran stage the maximum confrontation at the regional level, and within Islam.
We should be much more careful. In these last thirty years, several realities have become evident. One, since the bipolar world has ended (in one way or another), almost all states on the planet want and need to be in all the supranational organizations they can, regional or global. ASEAN (organization of Southeast Asian nations), the OSCE, NATO (with a logical renewed impetus), the Council of Europe, and several Latin American regional organizations have been strengthened. In Latin America there is a fairly common backdrop, and that is that if what happened in Ukraine allows us to sweep away the United States, why not? Even Pope Francis has done it, first as an Argentine, and shortly after, with nuances of a more Vatican profile.
Let us therefore look for useful guidelines, now that the term “globalization” (another wild card commonly used in the 90s) is in certain retreat. We know for sure that the world, as a global system, will be increasingly interdependent, and this parameter affects all actors, states, international organizations, or others. We also know for sure that conflicts (of varying intensities) will continue to be the rule, while peace will continue to be “what is between two wars.” Some commentators have indicated, for example, that Ukraine is “a war between Europeans.” An error resulting from a biased reading, when one of the consequences of this war is that Russia prevents the export of Ukrainian grain through the Bosphorus Strait, Turkey comes into play and many people in the sub-Saharan Sahel suddenly begin to go hungry.
And what about Gaza, how do we analyze it, apart from the moral angle that outrages more and more people? Because Gaza is in the north, but right now it is the worst nightmare on the planet.
