“There is no plan B,” they say in the European People's Party (EPP). Not even time. Less than 72 hours before the deadline set by the Popular Party to receive candidates to be the head of the list in the European elections expires, no candidate has dared to apply. Today all eyes are on the absolute favorite for the position and, therefore, to lead the next European Commission, the German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen.
The president of the Community Executive will take advantage of her attendance at the meeting that the CDU is holding today in Berlin to announce her desire to be the head of the list or Spitzenkandidat of the EPP in the next elections to the European Parliament, several party sources have confirmed. The final decision will be made at the congress that will bring together the European Popular Party in Bucharest on March 6 and 7, a week after the European Social Democrats do the same in Rome.
Although in 2019 the heads of State and Government ignored the process of appointing the president of the Commission defended by the political groups of the European Parliament – which implies automatically accepting the leader of the most voted formation, to their Spitzenkandidat – , the EPP has included the system in its statutes and is obliged to elect a candidate.
During the Munich security conference, Von der Leyen allowed herself to slip hints that she aspires to a second term (she answered with a resounding “yes” when asked if there will be a Defense Commissioner in the next Commission, although she later clarified that this is the case. would be “if she were the next president”). The German has kept her cards until the end and has managed the times according to her convenience, a strategy that has further strained her relations with her in-laws.
No last-minute rivals are expected, but a tough internal negotiation is expected to ensure that his second term has a less environmentalist orientation than the first, during which he has relied on socialists and greens to legislate. “He has already read the draft of the manifesto that will be approved in Bucharest and will know how to stick to it,” indicate sources from the EPP group, with which he will meet on Wednesday. Pressured by her political family and her efforts in half of Europe, Von der Leyen in recent weeks has multiplied the nods to the right at the cost of blurring her legacy, the Green Pact.
He is not expected to participate in electoral events until the final stretch of the campaign. Her good rapport with Pedro Sánchez raises doubts for the Popular Party about whether to invite her to Spain, but she is expected in Greece and Poland, led by Prime Ministers Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Donald Tusk.
Her proclamation as an EPP candidate will put Von der Leyen in pole position for a second term, but the outcome is not guaranteed. She has in her favor that all electoral polls show the EPP as the most voted force in June, but it is not a direct election. In reality, it is the European Council (the leaders of the Twenty-Seven) that, taking into account the result of the elections, proposes a candidate for Parliament. The EPP currently has 13 leaders at that table, a figure that, added to the presumed support of the progressive governments of Germany and Spain, means that Von der Leyen faces the process calmly. Her window to head NATO seems to have closed in recent weeks with the bet on the Dutchman Mark Rutte.
Von der Leyen's visit to Paris this week to meet with President Emmanuel Macron and her meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggest that, if she confirms her candidacy today, it is because she has everything well tied up. Paradoxically, a person who came to power by virtue of a pact between Paris and Berlin that dynamited the Spitzenkandidat system in may be the same person who validates it. “It's a thing of the past,” says the popular Bavarian Manfred Weber, who in the 2019 elections saw how being the head of the list of the most voted group was worthless.
That the European social democrats are going to bet on a candidate with a more than discreet political profile, the Luxembourgian Nicolas Schmit, Commissioner for Employment, indicates that his bets go in other directions: taking over the European Council or maintaining the position of high representative of Foreign Policy . The name of António Costa, former Portuguese Prime Minister, a socialist, is once again circulating as a possible replacement for Charles Michel, while the liberals are betting on Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia, to replace Josep Borrell.
