It went from eliciting reactions like “Von der... what?” when in 2019 she was unexpectedly propelled by Emmanuel Macron to the presidency of the European Commission to become the face and telephone number of Europe and, just over a month ago, she left as the undoubted favorite to take charge of the institution after the European elections in June. She probably still is, but the outcome of that race seems much more uncertain than when on March 7 in Bucharest Ursula von der Leyen was proclaimed candidate for the position by the European People's Party (EPP).
The “sense of inevitability” that surrounded his candidacy has dissipated, say his ideological rivals, stimulated by the red card that the European Parliament has given him for an internal scandal that in other times would not have gone beyond the Brussels bubble, the intense struggle between European groups and even the legal problems that loom on the horizon. The European campaign has started and is, by far, the most political to date, a drift that bothers some of the institutions and upsets capitals like Paris, contrary to the system of top candidates or spitzenkandidaten designed by the parties. European politicians outside the treaties by which they designate in advance their candidates to preside over the Commission, instead of voting for the person designated by the leaders.
Under pressure from the EPP, Von der Leyen has agreed to participate. She was between a rock and a hard place: either she was trying to be re-elected as in 2019, by designation, but risking losing the votes of her own political family, with whom she maintains tense relations, or she had to jump through hoops and work with his co-religionists to win the nomination. She opted for the latter and, hours after being elected, one of her commissioners, the Frenchman Thierry Breton, fired off a tweet full of intentions: “Despite her qualities, Von der Leyen is in a minority in her own party,” he tweeted to shock of the Brussels bubble in reference to the nearly 20% votes against that the German registered at the EPP congress, where she was the only candidate.
Breton assures that Emmanuel Macron, contrary to what was said at the time, “loved” his attack on Von der Leyen. The President of the Republic was quick to remember that he rejects the spitzenkandidaten system, because in his opinion it "hyperpoliticizes" the presidency of the Commission and demanded that it remain "above parties and countries." Contrary to what he promised, Von der Leyen has not taken to the streets to campaign (in reality, he is not running for any seat). For now he has only traveled to Greece, a great bastion of the popular ones, and has left the attacks on rival formations, except the pro-Russian extreme right, in the hands of the president of the EPP, Manfred Weber. But all of his actions and decisions are now analyzed through a political prism.
The atmosphere of electoral boiling in which Brussels has entered is not alien to the decision of four heavyweights of the Commission (the vice president Josep Borrell, the French liberal Breton, the Italian social democrat Paolo Gentiloni and his Luxembourgish co-religionist, Nicolas Schmit, head of the list of the European Socialists) to disapprove of Von der Leyen's decision to appoint a CDU MEP, Markus Pieper, as “EU envoy for SMEs”, shortly before the EPP congress. Pieper was not the highest ranked candidate in the selection process. Breton was betting on number one, the Czech liberal MEP Martina Dlabajova, but the president opted for him.
To the disapproval of the commissioners, who come to accuse her of political favoritism, is added the criticism of the NGOs and the amendment approved by 382 votes in favor and 144 in the European Parliament, which demands the annulment of the appointment and that the EPP tried in vain to brake. The vote is not binding but the result heralds a tough fight to gain support in a hypothetical vote on Von der Leyen's candidacy. Far from rectifying, the German has reaffirmed her decision. As a culmination of his eventful start to the campaign, the European Prosecutor's Office has taken over the investigation into the text messages he exchanged with the CEO of Pfizer, Albert Bourla, about the purchase of vaccines, a case initiated by a complaint from The New York Times.
The power accumulated by Von der Leyen, whose management of the pandemic and reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine translated into important advances in European construction, has given rise to great rivalries, the most visible, but not the only ones, with Breton, Borrell and Charles Michel, president of the European Council. “The atmosphere has changed in recent weeks,” they point out from the rival trenches. Different diplomatic sources easily throw out possible names that could be put on the table if it is necessary to activate a plan B because the leaders conclude that the German will not be able to gather the necessary majority in Parliament to be re-elected, a risk derived from the EPP's approach to the extreme right, which can deprive the German of the votes of the left: the president of the European Parliament, the popular Maltese Roberta Metsola, the former Italian prime minister Mario Dragui, whom he generally sees in any case at the head of the European Council, the first Croatian Minister Andrej Plenkovic...
But Von der Leyen's calculation seems to be the same as that of the EPP, which describes the scandal as a "crude campaign for political purposes." “Beyond Brussels, this is not going to move anyone,” say party sources. Although some leaders “might use it against her to try to get something out of her,” calls for accountability will ultimately prevail. “With Brussels, no one wants an additional mess to add to what they already have at home and Von der Leyen guarantees that,” these sources conclude.
