The results in the Valencian Community will be the most relevant indicator of 28-M. If Ximo Puig achieves re-election as president of the Generalitat Valenciana, it will mean that local factors (assessment of management and leadership) have been preponderant compared to the common strategy of the Popular Party and Vox, consisting of appealing for a general mobilization against Pedro Sanchez.
If the PP-Vox confluence wins in Valencia in five weeks, this would not mean the automatic victory of the right in the December general elections, but we would be facing a substantial political change. We are not talking about a slight modification to the map.
Spain is a country with strong territorial powers, and in the same way that it is not easy to govern with Catalonia and the Basque Country against it (José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy know this well), Spain would not be very governable either with Madrid, Andalusia and Valencia , three of the four most populous communities, aligned against a second coalition government, perhaps weaker, with the PSOE in a precarious ally with the badly reconciled Sumar-Podemos couple, in the event that they end up joining the generals .
"Andalusia removes and puts presidents", Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla reminded Sánchez yesterday, before his visit to the Doñana park to make ugly the management of the Junta de Andalucía of the aquifers of a protected area to which the European Union lends special attention. Sánchez works politically with the European shield. And the right will try to set up an almost invincible territorial alliance, with the drought as a great backdrop. It depends on Valencia.
And what is the key to Valencia? Point up, point down, the polls indicate a very even result in the community sphere, with an advantage for the socialist Puig if local factors are preponderant in the deliberation and there is not a strong defeat of the left in the fight for the mayor of Valencia. Joan Ribó does not have it easy. The municipal candidate of the Popular Party, María José Català, has more punch than the PP candidate for the Generalitat, Carlos Mazón.
The key is in the reputation of the Valencian society before the rest of Spain. The key is in the self-perception of that reputation. The motorized PP with real estate capital gains, Aznar's great bet to fortify a long-term hegemony, lost the Valencian Community due to the accumulation of corruption cases, but that does not explain everything. The PP began to lose the day that the Valencians began to fear for their reputation. To save Esperanza Aguirre, the conservative press in Madrid began to obsessively target Valencia. "Gürtel is something of the Valencians". They lost that day.
Eight years later, the PP works with the premise that Valencian society has already turned the page and that the problem now is Sánchez. During that time, Valencia has recovered its reputation and has managed to attract the largest industrial investment planned in Spain for the coming years: the large battery factory of the Volkswagen group in Sagunt. That is the sign.
The Valencian politician speaks German these days. “Gürtel or Volkswagen”, said Puig, emulating the propaganda effectiveness of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who raised a devastating slogan in the middle of the confinement phase: “Freedom”.
