Two US Air Force B-1B bombers attacked 85 targets in seven locations inside Iraq and Syria on Friday night. This offensive, announced days ago, could have further set the Middle East on fire, but there has been no military response from Iran or its related militias in the Axis of Resistance.
Even the rhetoric has been moderate. The Islamic republic has not even threatened retaliation. What's more, the spokesman for the al Nujaba Movement, one of the most active armed groups in Iraq, told the Associated Press agency yesterday that "we do not want to increase tensions in the region." Days ago, Kataeb Hizbulah, one of the main Axis militias, announced that it was ceasing military operations against the United States.
Only Iraq noted that the offensive will have “disastrous consequences,” but this is something that only Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, can decide, and it does not appear that he will do so. He has recommended his generals to have “strategic patience” and they have conveyed the message to the Axis of Resistance.
The Pentagon has also opted for caution. Although there were about 40 deaths, the militias were warned and were able to put their weapons in safekeeping. Neither target was inside Iran. Not even close to its borders. More than doing harm, Washington wanted to send a message and Tehran has understood it very well.
It is clear that Iran does not want a war with the US. Selling drones to Russia to attack Ukraine, supporting Hamas and financing and arming the Axis of Resistance is provocation enough.
Iran claimed victory on October 7 because any defeat by Israel is cause for joy in Tehran. “The defeat of the Zionist regime – said Khamenei – is also the defeat of the United States.”
The Hamas massacre caught Iran off guard. The CIA assured that it was not warned, but it did not take long to take advantage.
Since that day, the Axis of Resistance has launched more than 160 attacks against North American forces in the region. The Houthis have also harassed and boarded merchant ships in the Red Sea, while Hizbullah artillery relentlessly hammers northern Israel.
Iran has shown that its allies can sow chaos and protect it at the same time. They are its great shield, especially Hizbullah, which threatens Israel with tens of thousands of rockets.
However, they cannot do much more than they have already done without risking annihilation. For this reason, Iran asks for caution. He needs them to tighten the rope, but not to break it, because he is not prepared for a direct collision with the United States.
President Joe Biden also does not want to open a new front. Israel and Ukraine are enough, especially in an election year. He knows that only a direct attack against Iran can change things, but it is too risky an option, and the result is very uncertain.
Biden could order an attack on nuclear facilities to delay a program that is very close to achieving the atomic bomb. Observers from the International Atomic Energy Agency estimate that Iran is one month away from obtaining the uranium to power about five nuclear warheads and that, from there, manufacturing them will take less than a year. The underground facilities, built to resist the most powerful projectiles, guarantee the success of the program.
The ayatollahs have much better life insurance in the bomb than the Axis of Resistance, but it is not so obvious that they want it.
The price may be too high. China, which buys more oil than anyone else, will not like it, and it will trigger an arms race that will surely end up with some nuclearized Gulf monarchy.
Joe Biden has tried to negotiate a new nuclear deal, but without success. It is true that during the summer everything seemed to be going well, even the Axis of Resistance took a vacation, but on October 7th everything was ruined.
Now, four months later, it is clear that Iran is no stronger than before. He cannot do more harm to Israel and the US without seriously endangering their future.
Maybe it's a good time to give diplomacy another chance.
