The presence of natural snow (not counting artificially produced snow) in the main ski areas around the world will be reduced "drastically" in the coming decades due to climate change, according to calculations collected in a new study international scientist on this subject led by Veronika Mitterwallner, researcher at the University of Bayreuth (Germany) whose results have been published in the journal PLOS ONE (March 13).
The decrease in days with natural snow in the areas studied will obviously be much greater if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase on a global scale at the rate of recent years (the worst of the analyzed scenarios), but, Even if reductions such as those foreseen in the Paris Agreement against climate change are implemented, there are significant decreases in the presence of snow around the world.
The most affected areas, among those analyzed, will be precisely those that are closest to densely inhabited areas (with easier access for skiing).
The study analyzes the current situation and future scenarios on ski slopes located in seven major mountain regions: Andes, Appalachia, Australian Alps, European Alps, Japanese Alps, New Zealand Alps and Rocky Mountains. The Pyrenees is not included in this study, but it can be assumed that this mountain range will be affected by the reduction in the presence of snow on a scale similar to or worse than that calculated for the European Alps; In fact, this has been pointed out by previous regional studies, some of them focused on the recent loss of ice in the Pyrenees.
"Despite the social, economic and ecological importance of the ski industry, there is little research on how the distribution of ski areas is affected by climate change globally. Existing studies so far are mostly small-scale and focus on Europe, North America and Australia," the authors of the new study state in the preamble to their article.
The team led by Veronika Mitterwallner has examined the impact of climate change on the natural snow cover in hundreds of ski resorts in the study areas using open access databases and mapping. The researchers also used the public climate database CHELSA, allowing them to predict the annual days of snow cover for each ski area for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under low, high and high carbon emissions scenarios. and very high.
In the high emissions scenario, 13% of ski areas analyzed are expected to lose all natural snow cover between 2071 and 2100. 20% of resorts will lose more than half of their snow days per year in this same period of three decades.
The study indicates, on the other hand, that between 2071 and 2100, the annual average number of days with natural snow on the slopes would decrease the most in the Australian Alps (78%) and the New Zealand Alps (51%), followed by the Alps Japanese (50%), the Andes (43%), the European Alps (42%), and Appalachia (37%), with the Rocky Mountains expected to see the smallest decline at 23%.
Researchers say declining snow cover may prompt ski resorts to move or expand to less populated, higher altitude areas, "potentially threatening alpine plants and animals already under climate-induced pressure." ". Affected resorts may be forced to increase the production of artificial snow, which in some cases can temporarily reduce the problem, but, "in any case, the authors predict that the economic profitability of ski resorts will fall globally." , points out the magazine in which the results of this study are published, among the highlights of the new research.
In the graph at the top: Decrease in the presence of snow in the large ski areas analyzed in this study. Estimates under three different climate change scenarios: (low CO2 emissions (SSP1-2.6), high emissions (SSP3-7.0) and very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Ski regions: European Alps, Andes, Appalachia, Australian Alps , Japanese Alps, Southern Alps (New Zealand Alps) and Rocky Mountains.
