Two factors stand out above the rest when it comes to explaining why Madrid and Zaragoza fell into the hands of the conservative bloc in 2019, while Valencia and Seville resisted the deployment of the forces of the right. The first of these factors was the irruption of Vox, which raised an orphan vote from the most radical right that had stayed at home in the 2015 elections. Four years later, these voters found a brand on the extreme right that was clearly in tune with their thought, without the visible corruption or the "complexes" that "the cowardly right wing" of the Popular Party had exhibited. The second decisive factor was the division of the left, whose fragmentation led it to defeat even in capitals where it won more votes than the right.
MADRID
A separate case
The defeat of the left in the capital of Spain in the 2019 municipal elections was final. He lost 25,000 votes and fell back in all districts, including those that, due to their social composition, should have been more favorable to him. And this outcome forces the introduction of a third factor in the equation of defeat: a management that was not in tune with the concerns of its potential voters. The division on the left also contributed to the defeat, true, but the aggressive mobilization of the ultra-conservative vote on Vox's horse weighed even more. The global balance of the three right-wings translated into almost 43,000 more votes than in 2015. And with percentages of conservative votes above 70% in some districts -an unprecedented quota in other capitals-, the electoral physiognomy of Madrid showed an aggressive righting.
SEVILLA
intensive helpful vote
The left retained Seville in 2019 and even increased its advantage from four years ago because it carried out an intensive exercise of useful voting. Not only did he capitalize on the management, with advances in districts of different signs, but he also increased his electoral quota against a right that barely grew compared to 2015 (around one point). But beyond the almost ten points of advantage that PSOE and Adelante Andalucía took from the conservative bloc, the determining factor was the concentration of the leftist vote in two viable brands, which made it possible to make every last vote profitable and translate it into a clear majority of councillors. Four years ago, more than 13,000 left-wing ballots were left without representation. And the next 28-M, with the radical left again divided, the phenomenon could be repeated, although now with lethal consequences. Lastly, it is worth noting the progress of the right in low-income districts, once again riding Vox.
SARAGOSSA
the suicidal dispersal
The Aragonese capital symbolized four years ago the failure of the new politics and activism when facing the tasks of government. The force that took over the mayoralty in 2015, Zaragoza en Común, not only carried out a management that was not valued by the citizens, but also failed to unite the forces of the alternative left, which were divided. The result of this double failure was that the governing formation fell from second to fourth position and the dispersion of the radical left vote left more than 15,000 voters of that sign without representation (who were less than four tenths away from entering the the distribution of mayors of the consistory). The resulting paradox is that the right-wing formations, despite adding fewer votes, won the mayoralty.
VALENCIA
On the razor's edge
The mayoralty of Valencia was decided in 2019 by just one tenth of an advantage. The conservative forces (Partido Popular, Ciudadanos and Vox) added 46.6% and those of the left that obtained representation, 46.7%. The popular vote reveals, however, that the advantage of the left was broader: Compromís, PSOE and Podemos added 51% of the votes. But, just as it had happened four years before, the dispersion of the vote of the alternative left left some formations of that sign without representation as they did not reach the 5% bar. In 2015 it was Esquerra Unida (almost 20,000 votes and zero councilors with only three tenths to go to obtain representation), and in 2019 there were 16,000 Podemos ballots (in this case with eight tenths to go to enter the distribution of mayors ). On 28-M, and for the third time, this dispersion will be repeated. Not everyone learns from their mistakes. And the tenth lead in 2019 was too tight a margin to take risks again. For this reason, if the right conquers the Valencia City Council, it will probably be because the division of the left will have given it to them.
