The historic fall, because something like this had never happened, of Kevin McCarthy as president of the House of Representatives and third position in the hierarchy of power in the United States opens the greatest institutional crisis suffered in this country in decades. Once the rebellion of eight far-right Republicans against their own leader was consummated, with the support of the Democrats as a whole, all activity was postponed until next week and the negotiation period was opened to resolve the succession. This is limbo, a territory never explored. There is fighting, internal warmongering.
Some names appear on the conservative list, but it will not be easy, political commentators maintain, to find a consensus among the majority of the House given the level of internal confrontation, encouraged largely by the toxicity of Donald Trump.
Jim Jordan, legislator from Ohio, ultra-Trumpist and denier of the coup attempt on January 6, 2021 (the police repressed some “tourists,” according to him), was the first to announce his candidacy for the position yesterday. In these ten months of McCarthy's presidency, the most short-lived since 1876, Jordan has been a good ally of the dismissed man. He has support, but Steve Scalise, head of the Republican majority and somewhat less ultra, seems the natural successor and is also running for office. He has more supporters. Play against him who is recovering from cancer.
There was also someone who put Patrick McHenry into play, on whom the task of acting as interim substitute has fallen. He has been in Congress since 2005. He has been a good ally of Kevin McCarthy, whom the vast majority of Republicans supported in the face of the challenge launched by the extremist Matt Gaetz and his seven followers.
The dimension of the catastrophe is observed when there are voices among the conspirators and the most radical of the extreme right who propose that Trump himself be elected speaker. They say this is the cotton test to find out who is truly conservative, in the most radical sense.
Using his style between falsehood and exaggeration, the former president responded yesterday that “many” have asked him to take the step. He assured that he ruled it out. “I lead the race for the presidency by more than 50 points,” he stated in reference to the rest of the conservative candidates in the 2024 presidential elections.
“I am totally focused on the campaign, but if I can help in the process, I will. There are very good people in the Republican Party who can do a great job as speakers,” he responded to journalists on his way to his third day of voluntary attendance at the trial regarding his alleged frauds against the banks by inflating the value of his assets.
What is certain is that this unprecedented situation would not have been reached without Trump's pernicious influence within conservative ranks. The promoters of this challenge were some of the former president's main spokespersons who opposed McCarthy – whom Trump silenced despite being a good ally – and pursue total radicalization, sowing chaos.
However, at the heart of the matter is the poor result in the 2022 midterm elections for the Republicans. They were convinced that they were going to recover the Lower House with an overwhelming majority. The results contradicted them. Aside from the covert plebiscite on abortion, the endorsement of the lists of absolutely ineligible Trumpist candidates, according to analysts, caused the Democrats to obtain a result much higher than expected, giving a minimal majority to the conservatives.
These are the consequences. This week the error of surrendering to Trump's wishes and his civil war legacy emerged clearly in Congress. Only five dissidents within the Republican ranks were enough to oust McCarthy if the Democrats voted en bloc, as they did, holding him accountable for his disdain.
As many progressives highlighted on the hangover day, today, Hakeem Jeffries, leader of the Democratic minority in the Lower House, is the one with the most votes to be its president. It is impossible, but it is a fact.
