The elephant in the room was the referendum. He planned in the conversations between the PSOE and Junts in recent weeks. The socialists had privately warned their interlocutors that they would not give in on anything related to self-determination, while negotiations on the amnesty continued. Until last Thursday the news broke in the Parliament: Junts and ERC, who have been fighting for years, joined forces to demand that Pedro Sánchez commit to “working” for a referendum – agreed upon, of course – if he wants to be sworn in as president. .
PSOE and PSC came out immediately to make it clear that they were not going to go through there. Moncloa asked Salvador Illa to respond forcefully in the media. After the initial anger, the socialists accept what happened as good because they consider that it has allowed them to make clear the limits of an agreement. They interpret that if Junts is still at the table it is because it assumes them.
Until that setback, Sánchez was very convinced that everything was going smoothly. Because? What was his optimism based on, beyond his tendency to not give up any opportunity? The reason is the contrast with the first steps to negotiate the presidency of Congress. Those initial contacts were marked by extreme distrust. Junts demanded the amnesty law before the investiture and the PSOE rejected it.
The socialists had to force the regulations so that the two pro-independence parties obtained a parliamentary group, not only lending them deputies but also doing something unprecedented, such as “carrying” with them the votes assigned to each seat to reach the required percentage. Junts and ERC were far from meeting the conditions to enjoy the gifts of a group: visibility of intervention on the platform, advisors, budget allocation, etc. But Carles Puigdemont's people could not say yes to President Francina Armengol in exchange for something so cheap. They needed something more.
Junts presented a list of demands and the socialists chose the use of co-official languages in Congress and prepared to change the regulations of the Chamber. Overcoming the mistrust between the parties was the most complicated. Also manage the brutal competition between ERC and Junts. The Republicans suspected that the amnesty was being agreed behind their backs in exchange for the presidency of Congress for the PSOE. That would have left ERC in a very bad position, which took years to obtain the pardons. Finally, the agreements were fulfilled. The Foreign Minister is trying to include Catalan on the list of official languages of the EU and the Minister of the Interior has asked Europol to rectify the report that links the independence movement with terrorism. All of these are express requests from Puigdemont agreed with the socialists.
Thus establishing a climate of greater trust, the PSOE and Junts have exchanged documents on the amnesty. The key points are several. First, the explanatory statement of the law is essential for the Constitutional Court to validate it. The 1977 law did not have such a preamble, but the Constitution had not yet been approved. For Junts it was more comfortable to avoid it, since the reasons for the law for each are different. But you run the risk of not passing the Constitutional cut. This statement of reasons will justify its general interest in the interests of coexistence and in returning the conflict from the judicial to the political sphere, although the text is not yet defined.
The second key issue is how to prevent the Supreme Court from making a different interpretation than what is sought, as happened with the crime of embezzlement, when it was intended that a lower sentence would be applied to pro-independence defendants and the opposite happened. Although the cases are scattered among different judicial bodies, the Supreme Court will rule on the cases that correspond to it, such as that of Carles Puigdemont, and jurisprudence will emanate from there. The clash between the Second Chamber of the court, which tried the leaders of the process, and the Government is public and notorious. More as a result of the pardons.
Finally, it will be necessary to temporarily delimit the law, the facts to which it refers and the crimes whose criminal and administrative effects (from disqualifications to economic sanctions) will be extinguished. That is, it is not about erasing or forgetting them, they will be reflected, although they will have no consequences. Figures on the number of people affected are unclear. Some sources indicate that there could be between 200 and 300, although in the end that will depend on who the judges apply the amnesty law to. In principle, an attempt will be made to include the police and civil guards prosecuted for the 1-O charges.
There are other difficulties. For example, how to deal with accusations of terrorism for alleged participation in the actions of the Democratic Tsunami, which led to riots in Catalonia as a result of the condemnation of the leaders of the process. Among the accused are the former ERC leader Xavier Vendrell and Josep Lluís Alay, Puigdemont's trusted man. Amnestying terrorism crimes are big words, but the National Court's Prosecutor's Office is inclined to refer the case to an ordinary court because it believes that, once sedition has been repealed, it can only accuse them of public disorder.
All of these details are being addressed discreetly and are moving forward. Hence the optimism of the negotiators, amazed at the discretion and seriousness of the other party... until the Parliament's resolution. But the question is whether the amnesty law is enough for Puigdemont. The former president needs to go further than ERC to please his people. It is true that the amnesty is one step further than the pardons, but the Junts spokesperson, Míriam Nogueras, insisted that they have not “maintained the position” (six years in Belgium) only to achieve a pardon and not a move towards independence. . The former president knows that he cannot ask for the referendum in exchange for the investiture, but he is looking for some reference to addressing the issue in the future.
Puigdemont, in his speech on September 5, spoke of an agreed referendum as an objective, but did not make it a condition for investiture of Sánchez, but rather called for a debate on the matter during the legislature. Junts has conveyed to the socialists that the Parliament's resolution did not change anything with respect to what Puigdemont said. The text is the result of the rivalry between Junts and ERC. In fact, both parties boasted of having dragged the other into their theses with that resolution.
The mediation that Junts demands is a condition for the investiture and a stumbling block. The PSOE does not want it, and even less internationally, but the question remains open. The socialists also want Puigdemont to make some gesture that indicates that he rejects the unilateral route to achieving independence. And furthermore, the PSOE would like to reach an agreement before the investiture that goes further and guarantees at least some budgets. There is dialogue between Junts and the Treasury about financing and other issues that could pave the way for this.
If there is an agreement, the most difficult thing will be to reconcile the story of the PSOE and Puigdemont, without one stirring up the bases of the other and without hurting ERC. The socialists know that they have to take care of ERC to complete the puzzle. The pact will still need weeks to see the light, if ever. Today the independence movement commemorates 1-O, a day prone to slander, although the tone of the Junts manifesto is more toned down than that of previous years. And Sánchez will have to overcome 12-O, the National Holiday, with the biggest boo of his life.
