The blitzkrieg electoral war that President Pere Aragonès has undertaken by bringing forward the Catalan elections seems far from translating into success for the independence movement as a whole. An Ipsos poll for La Vanguardia, carried out between March 16 and 20, after the announcement of the electoral advance, paints a scenario in which the first party would once again be the PSC, although with a greater advantage in votes than in the last regional elections and that for the first time would also win in seats (with a total of 41).
If in February 2021 the Socialists tied 33 seats with Esquerra despite leading the Republicans by almost 50,000 ballots, now the PSC would prevail more clearly, since both Junts (with 29 deputies) and ERC (with 26) would jointly give in. up to a total of ten parliamentarians. In the Ipsos estimate, the socialists (29.4%) lead JxCat (17.7%) by more than 11 points and Esquerra (16.8%) by more than 12 points.
The overall losses of the independence movement could reach 12 seats if the CUP's decline is taken into account. And as a consequence of this, the secessionist formations would also lose their current absolute majority in the Parliament. They would go from a total of 74 deputies, three years ago, to a figure of 62, now; that is, six seats below the majority of the House.
The future Parliament would register more changes, but, according to the survey projections, it would not make governability easier. The losses of Junts (three seats), Esquerra (seven) and the CUP (two) would close the way to a new pro-independence majority, although the struggle between the forces of that sign has already dynamited the stability of the last legislature and neutralized its parliamentary hegemony .
At the same time, the noticeable rise of the PSC and the slight improvement of the commons (going from eight to nine deputies) would not be enough to create an alternative left-wing majority (not even a relative one). Socialists and Catalunya en Comú (CeC) could gather a total of 50 deputies, but they would still be 18 short of half plus one of the Chamber and twelve below the independence groups.
For its part, the right flank of the hemicycle would reflect a spectacular rise of the PP (which would multiply its number of seats by five, from 3 to 15) and a significant decline of Vox (which would fall from 11 to eight seats). But Ciudadanos would not obtain representation (it achieved six seats in 2021), so the final balance would mean only three more deputies (23) for the conservative bloc, compared to the 20 three years ago.
In any case, not even a vote like that of the Barcelona City Council, in which an unusual collusion of the votes of the commons and the PP gave the absolute majority to the socialist Collboni, would work in the Parliament that emerges from the poll. In that case, the socialist presidential candidate, Salvador Illa, would need the inconceivable abstention of Vox to gather more votes in favor (65 with the PP's 15) than against (the 62 independentists).
From there, only a left-wing tripartite led by the PSC emerges as the formula capable of guaranteeing the governability of the Chamber (with a total of 76 seats, together with ERC and the commons). However, a bipartite formed by socialists and Junts (with a total of 70 deputies) would also gather the necessary majority to govern (although in that case Carles Puigdemont would be forced to hand over control to Illa as the most voted candidate).
The plausibility of these expectations is based on several data from the survey. The first, the drive for change: 77% of those consulted by Ipsos believe that a replacement at the head of the Government is necessary after the 12-M elections. And proof of this is that the estimated participation would rise to 59% (more than five points than in 2021 among residents of Catalonia). Of course, there are 50 days left until the elections and, with 15% undecided among those who say they will go to vote (that is, almost half a million votes in absolute terms), anything can still happen.
However, also among the undecided the PSC is ahead of Esquerra or Junts, the same as Illa ahead of Puigdemont and Aragonès. In this sense, 47% of citizens see the socialists as winners of the elections and 25% prefer them, against 16% who opt for Esquerra and 14% for Junts. Likewise, Salvador Illa is the highest-rated leader, since he is evaluated positively by almost 50% of those consulted.
In fact, preferences for the future president also favor Illa (23%), who is ten points above Puigdemont (13%) and 14 points above Aragonès (9%). What's more: the foreseeable impact of the former president who is a refugee in Brussels going to the polls for the third time seems smaller than expected, in view of the survey data. For example, Puigdemont is the politician who registers the highest level of disapproval (70%) among citizens, even ahead of the Vox candidate, Ignacio Garriga. The former president only approves among his voters (81%) and those of the CUP (60%), although not among those of ERC. In reality, only 27% of Catalans approve of Puigdemont's political work, while 70% also negatively judge the work of his party in Parliament.
To all this we should add that 63% rate the political situation in Catalonia negatively and that almost 65% (36 points more than two years ago) suspend the management of the current Government. In fact, only a third of Catalans consider that things in Catalonia are going “in the right direction”, compared to almost 55% who believe they are going “in the wrong direction” (including a third of ERC voters and more than half of Junts). In this context, it is not surprising that 60% agree with the decision to bring forward the elections.
