In just over two months, two of the best-known companies for installing solar panels for self-consumption have announced their respective employment regulation files. They are Holaluz and Solarprofit, which in both cases have proposed an ERE on 30% of their workforce, which means 200 and 300 layoffs, respectively.
They are examples of the problems experienced by the photovoltaic self-consumption sector in the last year. After the euphoria of 2021 and 2022, demand has plummeted. In the information sent to the market to present its latest results, Holaluz recognized falls of between 25% and 50%. The employers' association of this sector, the Spanish Photovoltaic Union (UNEF), estimates the global drop at 60% and the specialized company Otovo assures that it can reach 70%, especially in the residential market. “We are paying the immediate consequences of the irresponsibility of many companies that, faced with a doping demand, did not take adequate financial or management precautions,” says Iñigo Amoribieta, director of Otovo.
Using similes from previous crises, it seems that companies have sold beyond their means, with offers and templates to respond to exceptional demand. “What we are going to see in the sector now is a consolidation of companies that must learn to adjust their businesses and resize their workforce based on average demands and not peak times,” says José Donoso, general director of UNEF.
According to data from this employer's association, the demand for photovoltaic self-consumption installations rose in 2022 to 5,249. That was almost doubling the 2,742 installations in 2021 and was well above the 943 installed before the pandemic, which means they multiplied almost six-fold in three years. The end of 2023 will be far from those maximums.
The acceleration of those two years is very studied. “In 2021 the electricity bill began to rise with stratospheric charges and that encouraged many families and companies to make the leap to self-consumption. A pressure that has now disappeared,” explains Donoso.
Compared to the 700 euros per MWh that marked the price of electricity in some hours of 2022, this year it debuted with a price of zero euros in the wholesale market. A situation that has been repeated after the summer. “That makes people less sensitive to prices. The average has dropped a lot and there are no scary bills like in previous years,” says Donoso.
2023 has also been the year of tourism recovery, which, together with the rise in interest rates, has made families allocate savings from the pandemic to mortgage payments or travel and leisure, and the urgency of putting up panels is minor.
To this we must add that the attractive hook of public subsidies that the Recovery Plan launched after the crisis has fallen off. “Most of the subsidies have not been collected yet. It does not mean that they will not be paid, but if the neighbor tells you that they have not been paid, you consider the investment in a different way,” explains Donoso.
None of this means that the end of self-consumption in Spain has arrived. There is still a long way to go. “Of the 3 million single-family homes that are likely to have solar panels, only just over 300,000 have them. The growth margin is very high. But it must be done in moderation at about 150,000 per year, not almost double as happened last year,” says Amoribieta. A manager who always defended this energy model and who assures that “it is profitable without subsidies.” In his opinion, this public incentive served to excessively stimulate demand and caused the entry of many companies outside the sector, which led to great competition without sufficient financial guarantees.
He warns those interested. “Now, the installation of solar panels is between 20% and 30% cheaper than a year ago. In January, only the end of VAT aid will imply a minimum increase in the price of electricity of 15% and it will be difficult to see pre-crisis prices again. When they talk about the price increase on TV, it will be too late,” he warns.
