Spaniards care very little about the amnesty. This is reflected in the latest CIS, which places the economy, especially the quality of employment, the political row and health among its main concerns. It is the same appreciation that prevails in the Government of Pedro Sánchez, which takes for granted the wear and tear that this measure may have had on its electoral expectations. However, the Galician elections have been brought forward to February 18 precisely because the PP hopes to make the processing of that law profitable. This year's electoral cycle will indicate whether this is the case or not, although what will mark the duration of the legislature will be the elections to the Generalitat.
The Galicians are a challenge for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, not for the PSOE. The Basque elections are not an incentive for socialists and popular people. The Europeans do lend themselves to measuring the strength of both parties. It is an appointment inclined to give warnings to the government in power and that is what the PP trusts, which presents it as a plebiscite on the pacts of the PSOE with the Catalan and Basque independence movements. In turn, Sánchez will try to squeeze his leadership in Europe and present himself as a dam against the current of extreme right that appears in countries around us, as he already did at the Davos forum. All of these milestones are relevant, but the Catalan elections will be a turning point that can change everything. Only if Salvador Illa is president of the Generalitat, Sánchez will be able to defend the goodness of his pact and face the rest of the legislature with options. The result of Junts and ERC will also mark his attitude in Congress.
So to the permanent electoral campaign between PP and PSOE we must add the one that has already begun in Catalonia. Yesterday Pere Aragonès was proposed as an ERC candidate, cauterizing temptations of internal division, while Junts remains pending the judicial situation and the personal decision of Carles Puigdemont. Beyond the candidates, the Catalan campaign will be settled around which party is most influential in Madrid.
The dialogue is constant. In addition to the discussion between the governments of Aragonès and Sánchez, contacts between Minister Félix Bolaños and ERC leaders such as Josep Maria Jové are proliferating. Also the commissions between the two executives, such as the one regarding the future of El Prat airport or the transfer of Rodalies, as well as other contacts such as those that have facilitated the application of the rental limitation in Catalonia. Junts has also embarked on the path of in-depth dialogue, with a political table with a verifier and two pending commissions to address financing and economic issues on the one hand, and matters related to self-government such as powers or defense of Catalan on the other.
Another question is whether this negotiating frenzy will be fruitful. The PSOE resists many demands, although ERC also makes trouble with the airport or Junts swerves by asking for sanctions against companies that left Catalonia. But now everyone wants to offer an image of negotiation. Six years after the independence crisis, there is even an overdose of dialogue. (Even the PP and Junts have tried it). We enter into a competition to see who defends the interests of the Catalans in Madrid the most and best. CiU sublimated the “peix al cove” and now there are fishermen everywhere.
The PSC also demands that the PSOE reserve a leading role as a lobbyist. The elections to the Generalitat are going to be about who influences the most, who is most efficient, who gets the most start, whether what is achieved is smoke or not. In turn, the result will mark Spanish politics depending on the scenario: if the independence movement gains a majority, if it is capable of materializing it or not, if the fight between ERC and Junts is as close as until now or one leaves the other behind, if Illa achieves the presidency with a result that allows him to govern as a minority or if he needs another partner in the government and, in the latter case, if the ally is ERC, a more likely option at this time than that of Junts. With this scenario and the amnesty advancing in fits and starts, now it's time for dialogue and dialogue. Later, we will see.
