Giorgia Meloni spent yesterday the day of reflection with her daughter, little Ginevra, aware that it may be one of the few days left for her to dedicate herself entirely to her family before the whole of Europe concentrates on trying to understand this woman, leader of Brothers of Italy and with a past in the neo-fascist youth, which is one step away from leading the most right-wing government in Italy since the Second World War.
Europe is in suspense, because today's result in Italy will greatly depend on the balance in Brussels for the next few years. The polling stations in Italy have opened today at 7:00 a.m. for general elections that can make history if, as all the polls indicate, the far-right Meloni wins and becomes the first woman to come to power in the country.
About 51 million Italians are summoned to the polls to exercise their right until 11:00 p.m. (9:00 p.m. GMT), the closing time of the voting centers and when the exit polls will be known.
Although Meloni has tried to moderate his anti-European discourse in this electoral campaign to reassure the markets, he insists that he will defend Italian interests in Brussels like never before. In Milan, she was very clear in warning that "the bargain is over". She defends the positions of the Hungarian Viktor Orbán and says that the movements of the European Commission to suspend the disbursement of European funds worth 7,500 million euros to Hungary for its violations of the principles of the rule of law only benefit Vladimir Putin.
Budapest will surely be able to count on her for her battles with Brussels, as will Warsaw. He proposes to reform the Italian version of the European recovery plan, the great continental effort from which Italy is the biggest beneficiary. He also changed the Constitution without the consensus of the left to make it more presidential.
One thing is the nationalist victory in Sweden, the other is that the populist wind also moves to a founding country, with 60 million inhabitants and the third largest economy in the euro. Ursula Von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, made comments that have been interpreted by the Italian right-wing coalition as a threat. "If things go in a difficult direction we have instruments, as in the case of Poland and Hungary," warned the head of the European Executive from Princeton (USA).
Meloni's partners to come to power, the leaguer Matteo Salvini and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, have set fire to the closing of the campaign. The first, for demanding the apologies or the resignation of Von der Leyen. The second, for openly justifying the invasion of Ukraine. According to Reuters, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plan to talk these days about how to deal with the Italian situation.
Meloni, at the moment, is an unknown quantity. It is not known if, if he gets to govern, the softened messages that he has given during this campaign or the most extreme version of him will prevail. Experts assure that the room for maneuver that he will have is very narrow, mainly due to the obligations that the recovery plan entails – no government could afford to lose almost 200,000 million euros – but also due to the dangerous situation in which Italy finds itself. The energy crisis requires a European solution, and Rome will be interested in shared solutions that benefit its citizens. Then there is Mario Draghi, the outgoing prime minister, with whom Meloni has a smooth relationship. It is to be hoped that his cabinet wants to leave all the reins well tied so that there is no earthquake.
The elections this Sunday have a lot to do with history. First, because they are the first to be held in the fall, and this means that there will be a great rush to form a government to write next year's budgets. The formation of the next Italian executive will not be an immediate thing. The Chambers are not convened until October 13, and they must first elect the president of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. Then the consultations will begin with President Sergio Mattarella, the head of state who has the prerogatives to order the formation of a government. The most normal thing is that until the end of October or the beginning of November, Draghi continues to be in charge of ordinary affairs.
If the polls are correct and the right-wing bloc has a large majority to govern, the logical thing would be for Mattarella not to have any prejudice in choosing Meloni. Another historical reason: it could be the first time that a woman accesses the Chigi Palace. But on the other hand, if there are any last-minute surprises and the results are not so clear, it is possible that another candidate will appear during the negotiations. We must not forget that the last prime minister to stand for election was Silvio Berlusconi.
In 2018, no one knew the name of Giuseppe Conte, the anonymous lawyer chosen to balance the 5-Star Movement (M5E) and the League. Today everyone will be very aware of the south of the country, where the M5E has carried out a very intelligent campaign. Four years ago, the polls underestimated the pull of the grillini. Then there is the question of ministers. Mattarella will also have veto power over the names that are put on the table. But that will come later.
Europe may be surprised by the direction Italy is about to take, but not the Italians. The extreme right has been leading the polls for a long time. Meloni's rise has been meteoric, from the 4% obtained in the elections four years ago to the 25% given in the latest polls. With patience, it has been gaining consensus for being the only one in opposition to Draghi, and also the one that has been able to launch the most proposals, feeling like a winner, while the Democratic Party (PD), which according to the latest polls will stop at 20% of the votes, has concentrated on discrediting it.
The competition has failed to attract the attention of Italians, with 40% undecided and abstentionists. The lack of interest is due to several reasons, since it was a campaign that began while they were on vacation, to the fact that most of the candidates have already governed and are well known. Four of them are former prime ministers. This is another of the factors of Meloni's success: it is the only one that has not yet been tested. Almost 51 million Italians are called to vote between seven in the morning and eleven at night, when the polling stations will close. Then there will be exit polls, but the official results will not be known until Monday morning.
