No commitments. Not with Vladimir Putin's Russia. European public opinion is in favor of helping Ukraine until the final victory. No matter what it costs or how long it takes. This position of strength contrasts with the one held by the citizens of China, India and Turkey, who are in favor of peace in exchange for territories.
The latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations, which La Vanguardia publishes exclusively in Spanish, leaves no room for doubt about the division that a year of war in Ukraine has caused among the most influential countries. On the one hand, it has consolidated the Western bloc, but on the other it has separated it from China and the emerging nations, countries that interpret something as clear a priori as democracy in very different ways.
The Europeans, for example, do not see the war as an aggression only against Ukraine but against Europe as a whole. That is why they are committed to Ukraine recovering all of Ukraine's territory. They believe that only a complete defeat of Russia can guarantee their security. They support economic sanctions against Russia and that energy dependence has been cut.
The opinion of Western Europeans towards Russia has deteriorated a lot in the last year and now those who consider it a rival predominate, that is, an aggressive and unreliable country.
55% of Europeans, for example, want to maintain sanctions on Russia, even if it entails economic difficulties. Only 24% support restoring the Russian power supply.
While Western countries are not afraid of a long war, even if it causes many more deaths and destruction, non-Westerns prefer a quicker end. Very solid majorities in China, India and Turkey consider that Ukraine should cede territories to Russia, a country they see as a partner or ally.
The setbacks suffered by the Russian army in Ukraine have not taken their toll on the image that China, India and Turkey have of Russia as a strong country on the international scene.
The survey was conducted last January. Datapraxis, YouGov and Gallup interviewed nearly 20,000 people in ten European countries -Denmark, Poland, Estonia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Romania-, and also in China, India, Turkey, Russia and the United States. Joined.
The Western coalition is clear that the main reason for helping Ukraine is the defense of democracy and international law, as well as the strengthening of collective security, but China, India, Russia and Turkey do not buy the idea that war is “a fight for democracy”. On the contrary, they consider that the main reason for the US and the EU is the “defense of Western hegemony”.
Democracy, moreover, does not look the same from China or Europe. 77% of the Chinese surveyed, for example, consider their country to be a "true democracy", a system superior to Western political models. 57% of Indians and 36% of Turks think the same.
War, therefore, as the study reveals, is having a profound impact on the international order. Timothy Garton Ash, one of the co-authors, along with Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, believes that Ukraine has driven a deep wedge between the West and the rest of the world.
This distancing would indicate a decline in US hegemony, which is also dragging down Europe. Public opinion in China, India, Russia and Turkey does not distinguish between Washington and Brussels. If the EU aspired that the war would serve to mark its own profile, it is very far from achieving it.
Still, all does not seem lost for Europe in its quest to be a pivot between China and the United States. While the opinion that the Chinese have of the Americans is very negative, with regard to Europe they are more divided. 37% of Chinese, for example, see the EU as a necessary partner and 34% see it as a rival. Only 9% see the EU as an adversary, while 24% see the US that way.
Europe should pay more attention to how highly valued it is in India and Turkey. 82% of Indians, for example, consider her an ally or a partner. 53% of Turks think the same.
On the contrary, the opinion that Europeans have of these countries is not so favorable. Only 39% believe that Turkey is a partner or ally and only 36% think the same of India.
The competing countries of the Western bloc, whether they are democracies or autocracies, will have greater relevance in the coming years. The study points to a greater distribution of international power to the detriment of the liberal order that the US imposed after World War II.
The mediation of Turkey in the agreement with Russia to allow the export of Ukrainian grain, as well as the increase in the commercial relationship between India and Russia points to the emergence of a multipolar world. India, for example, is a historical ally of Russia, but is also involved in the QUAD security dialogue with Australia, Japan, and the United States.
It does not seem that after the war in Ukraine the world will return to the old liberal order. The study's authors believe the West should treat India, Brazil and Turkey as "new sovereign individuals in world history."
"The paradox of the Ukraine war," explains Mark Leonard, director of the European Center for Foreign Relations, "is that the West is both more united and less influential in the world than ever before."
Ivan Krastev, co-author and director of the Center for Liberal Strategies, believes that most Europeans and Americans still see the world as divided into two warring camps, democracy versus authoritarianism. However, in post-colonial countries ideology does not weigh as much as national sovereignty.
Timothy Garton Ash, co-author, professor of European studies at Oxford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, notes that the West “has failed in its attempt to persuade other great powers, such as China, India and Turkey. The lesson for Europe and the West is clear. We urgently need a new narrative that will be persuasive for countries like India, the world's largest democracy."
