The Euribor will close the month of August at 4.07% compared to the 4.149% it reached last July and which was the highest level since 2008, in the midst of the real estate bubble crisis.
The data is more relevant due to its trend than its amount. It will be the first time in 20 months that the Euribor breaks the rise that began in January 2022. Of course, it does not imply that those who have to review their mortgage this month will notice great relief, but it does mean that the increase in quota will be lower than, for example,
The decrease in August will not be a great relief for households that must review their mortgage based on this month's Euribor, since they will go from paying 1.249%, a price that reached the Euribor in August 2022, to the aforementioned 4.07%. . That is, the monthly fee will go from about 572 euros to 810 euros; 238 euros more than the previous year, but 27 less than what was increased to those who reviewed it in July.
The mortgage director of the iAhorro comparator, Simone Colombelli, is cautious, as he recalls that August is, historically, a month of declines because everything is paralyzed. "Most likely, we will see more rises in the Euribor starting in September. I would not say that what we are seeing is a downward trend as such, but rather a small seasonality in the data," says the expert.
In this way, the comparator indicates that in August the Euribor tends to fall or register minimal increases or decreases that are not "significant" for the market. Thus, Colombelli recalls that during the past year 2022, in August the index stood at 1.249%, only two tenths and a half above the data for July (0.992%), "which may seem like a good rise, but when compared With such a drastic increase registered in September, of almost one percentage point, up to 2,233%, it could be said that it was minimal".
Likewise, iAhorro points to the fact that interest rates have exceeded the Euribor in the last two months, something that has not happened since the indicator was positioned in negative and rates at 0%. Colombelli explains that this is because the increase agreed by the European Central Bank (ECB) in July was only 0.25 percentage points. "When we enter an environment of smaller increases, the push to the Euribor is less," he says.
In addition, he points out that if a new rise occurs in September, it does not mean that something similar will occur every month: "At the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 we will not see continuous rate increases, but rather, from time to time, In order to lower inflation (which in some EU countries is more controlled and in others less), the ECB will decide to increase them, maintain them, and maybe even decrease them," he says.
Regarding a possible rate hike in September, Colombelli believes that it will not exceed 25 basis points. However, the comparator does not foresee "major changes" in the last quarter of 2023, in such a way that the Euribor will continue "more or less" as before, with slight rises and falls. For 2024, iAhorro also foresees a difficult year, although a transition towards a decline at the end of next year and the beginning of 2025
For his part, the HelpMyCash mortgage specialist, Miquel Riera, explains that the slight drop in August reflects that entities are applying lower interest rates on their interbank loans because they anticipate that the ECB will stop increasing its rates in the medium term.
"That is to say, that they adapt their prices to the pause that they expect to take place within the next 12 months," he adds.
This comparator also sees it likely that the ECB will apply a new rate hike in September or October in order to contain inflation, so the Euribor could continue to rise slightly in the coming months and will stabilize at around 4%. and 4.5% before the end of the year; below, however, the interest rate applied by the ECB.
However, from the comparator they do not rule out that the ECB may now pause the rate hikes, as predicted by various players in the financial market. However, for that to happen, HelpMyCash believes that two conditions should be met: that inflation in the euro area falls at a faster rate than expected in August or September and that the continent's economy is on the verge of recession in the third quarter. .
