Nadia Calviño has shot herself in the foot and with it she has given it to all Spaniards. Getting rid of the president of the INE, Juan Manuel Rodríguez Poo, in the middle of a confrontation with the Government over the bad data, means sowing suspicion in the official statistics and this is especially serious when the risk premium harasses us.
Like César's wife, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) not only has to be honest, but also appear to be. And the way this conflict has been resolved gives rise to mistrust. It should not be forgotten that a fundamental element in Greece's intervention during the 2008 financial crisis was the suspicion that official statistics were being manipulated.
Beyond the fact that there are mischievous intentions of Economy regarding the INE, the problem is the way in which the change of its president has been approached. An unprecedented performance. It's like trying to change the referee and the rules of the game in the middle of the game. This is what makes him such a monumental scandal.
Calviño could have reasons to doubt the preparation of basic statistics, such as the CPI or GDP, but with his actions he has lost them. The vice president has been furious with some data that have questioned her optimistic forecasts for growth and recovery. Let's not forget that until a week ago she had maintained against all odds that inflation was a temporary and circumstantial phenomenon. But the CPI for June is no less than 10.2%, a figure unknown for 37 years.
Calviño could say that it is because the statistics are poorly done and only collect the regulated prices of electricity, but if he were to make a purchase, pour gasoline, have a beer in a bar or see what is happening in the EU, he would realize that prices are out of control, with or without Rodríguez Poo. Whoever spits at the sky usually falls on his face.
And the same goes for deceleration. A change of cycle is taking place, whether the coalition government likes it or not. For this reason, the GDP for the first quarter picked up the slowdown with a meager 0.3% and Calviño disavowed the statistics. A serious performance. He could have been right because tax collection and Social Security affiliates have increased, but he is not taking into account that the number of hours worked is lower. The straw that broke the camel's back was when the president of the INE said that reality was even worse and lowered it to 0.2%.
As much as it bothers the government, official statistics indicate that Spain is entering stagflation like the rest of the EU. Low growth and high inflation. And it remains to be seen whether the sharp increase in employment is a statistical make-up operation or if it is real.
Calviño is probably right when he says that the INE must be strengthened, but that must be done at the beginning of a legislature and in a consensual manner. With things to eat is not played.
