It was like a scene from the cold war. Kim Jong Un, the
top leader of North Korea, dropped this week from
luxurious armored train in which he had traveled to the Far
Russian East, was received by a military music band and
He ran to meet with Vladimir Putin. During a meal
included duck salad and crab dumplings and was
washed down with Russian wines, the two dictators toasted
what Kim called the “sacred struggle” against imperialism
western.
Both politicians are retrograde figures. Kim is the grandson of
a tyrant imposed on North Korea by Stalin. Putin is a
enthusiast of Russia's imperial past. However, the
The threat that both represent is clear and current. an alliance
between them could alter the course of the war in Ukraine
by providing Russia with a fresh supply of weapons and
suppose an escalation in the nuclear arms race in
Asia.
North Korea is like an extreme version of that in
What Russia is becoming under Putin:
a militarized society, isolated from the West, led by a despot attached to all consideration for human life. Without
However, despite his poverty and isolation, he suddenly has
of something Russia urgently needs: more missiles
artillery. It is estimated that Russia fired more than 10 million
last year and, as is also happening in Ukraine, it is
running out of ammunition. North Korea, with forces
Soviet style weapons, has millions of projectiles
stored and the primitive industrial force to manufacture
further. The failure rate of its projectiles is high: in one
discharge directed against South Korea in 2010, 20% did not
exploded. However, for Russia that is much better than nothing.
And North Korea could also offer other weapons, such as
rockets or howitzers.
An eventual agreement on ammunition would come in a
delicate moment of the Ukrainian counteroffensive; a
counteroffensive whose slowness has raised new doubts about
the tactics followed and the determination of the West. Of
Ukraine has now achieved at least parity with Russia in
artillery war, as both sides face
limited supplies. Now, if Russia received
a supply of ammunition, could immobilize more
effective Ukrainian forces, would slow down even their
advances and the level of wear would increase during the months
of winter that is coming.
North Korea wants something in return. In the decade of
2000, Russia signed the international sanctions regime
imposed on North Korea for its illegal weapons program
nuclear. However, the location of this week's meeting
(the Vostochny cosmodrome) has offered a clue not
too subtle of what is to come. Kim may
demand access to Russian missile technology that would improve
the reach, reliability and flexibility of the
North Korea's nuclear weapons launch. Maybe
You may also be interested in some secrets related to
Russian satellites and submarines.
So, although the immediate effect of any
agreement would simply make things more difficult for
Ukrainian soldiers, could ultimately also
alter the nuclear balance in Asia. The North Korean regime
is as erratic as it is malignant: it periodically threatens
raze South Korea and, just before the Kim-Putin summit,
fired two short-range ballistic missiles. There's others
countries concerned about improving their capabilities
military, and could respond by increasing their own
arsenals. A Kim dynasty capable of launching missiles from
submarines would be the terror of their neighbors.
To do? An unpredictable factor is China, a country that
exerts some influence on the two dictatorships. Not to China
a long and bloody war poses no problem for him
in Ukraine in the style of the 20th century from which Europe hopes
and the United States come out divided, but claims to show
wary of nuclear proliferation. An agreement between
Russia and North Korea would test similar
affirmation. For the West, new sanctions on Russia or
North Korea would have little effect. Instead, what
must do is increase the supply of ammunition to Ukraine
to help her defend herself against Russia. You should also do
public what you know about arms deals
between Moscow and Pyongyang, and reiterate that the nuclear umbrella
American protects its allies in Asia.
