If the elections were repeated, something plausible if Pedro Sánchez does not manage to be inaugurated before November 27, the general secretary of the PSOE would be in a position to win them, according to the October barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) published this Wednesday, which nevertheless narrows the advantage it gives to the acting President of the Government over the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, in relation to the September poll. On the other hand, the organization led by the controversial José Félix Tezanos expands the advantage that it already gave Sumar in September over Vox in third position.
The first barometer with the socialist leader as a formal candidate for the investiture practically points to a technical tie between the two main rivals. Thus, the general secretary of the PSOE would lose almost one point compared to September to reach a vote estimate of 32.6%, 0.9 points more than what he achieved on July 23. While the leader of the popular party would achieve half a point more than in the previous CIS poll, with 32.2% of the votes, although it would be eight tenths below the results of the last elections.
However, the most striking variations in the October barometer, whose field work was carried out at the beginning of the month coinciding with the debate on the amnesty that the independentists demand to give their support to Sánchez, occur in the third and fourth position. Already in the September survey, Yolanda Díaz's party, openly in favor of the amnesty, managed to place itself in third position ahead of Santiago Abascal's, absolutely opposed to the measure.
In this latest work by the demoscopic institute, the distance between both parties goes from 0.8 points in September to 2.6 points. Thus, Sumar would manage to surpass the results of 23-J by 0.4 points to reach an estimated vote of 12.7%, while Vox would lose 2.3 points until falling to 10.1% of the estimated vote.
In summary, the CIS grants a clear victory to the progressive bloc (PSOE Sumar), to which it attributes a vote estimate slightly higher than 45%, over the conservative bloc (PP Vox), to which it grants just over 42%.
The good results for Sumar contrast with the evaluation of its leader, Yolanda Díaz, who as second vice president of the acting Government fails in the evaluation of the members of the Executive with a 4.77, when in the previous legislature she used to be the highest rated minister. . In the July barometer, the last one in which this was asked, Díaz led the list with a 5.17. Now it is led by the Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, with 5.21.
This drop in the evaluation of the Minister of Labor is also perceived in the citizens' preference regarding who should occupy the presidency of the government. In July, 12.2% preferred the leader of Sumar and in September, 13.8%, but this month only 9.1% preferred Díaz as head of the Executive. For his part, Sánchez continues to be the preferred politician to reissue the presidency (29.2%), although with a decline of five tenths compared to September. Feijóo is in second position with 23.5% in preference among Spaniards.
Regarding the Catalan electoral panorama, in the previous September poll Junts managed to tie the vote estimate with Esquerra (1.7%) but now the CIS gives two tenths more to the Republicans, who would achieve the same results they obtained on 23-J ( 1.9%), while the estimate for Puigdemont's team drops by 0.4 tenths, to 1.3%.
It so happens that in recent weeks the Republicans have tried to recover the initiative in the negotiation of Sánchez's investiture that had shifted towards the post-convergents, essential for the reissue of the coalition government. Thus, those of Junqueras have been more active in demanding a self-determination referendum, taking the amnesty for granted, while Junts has maintained silence and discretion.
The economic crisis continues to top the list of problems that most concern Spaniards, with 37.3%. On the other hand, concern about unemployment gives way to second place (25.6%) in favor of political problems in general (30.9%). Concern about climate change, which rose from 19th place in July to fourth place in September, suffered a slight decrease of 3% to be in fifth place, below the bad behavior of politicians. Immigration remains just outside the top ten positions, with 8.2%.
