The PSOE would win the general elections again if they were held today, according to the May barometer of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) published this Wednesday, which, as has happened in recent months, places the PP in second position. But the most notable thing about the poll is that the distance between the estimated vote between the formations of Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo narrows to less than two points, going from 4.3 points in April to 1.9 points in May .
This is due in large part to a notable decline that the CIS estimates for the Socialists of 1.3 points, coinciding with a substantial rise in Sumar, which absorbs support from Podemos and achieves third place to the detriment of Vox. In parallel, the improvement in the expectations of the Popular Party coincides with a drop in the estimate for those of Santiago Abascal, who fall to fourth place.
Specifically, the study, whose field work was carried out shortly before the beginning of the electoral campaign of 28-M, between May 3 and 8, and therefore before the controversy over the inclusion of exetarras in the lists of EH Bildu, gives an estimate of the vote for the PSOE of 29.1%, 1.3 points less than in April, but still one point above the results of the last general elections.
For its part, the PP recovers part of what was lost in the previous poll to reach a vote estimate of 27.2%, 1.1 points above April and more than seven points above the November 2019 elections. .
For the second time in a row, the CIS barometer separates the vote estimate for Sumar and Podemos, and here is another of the great novelties of the survey. The platform of the second vice president of the Government, Yolanda Díaz, ranks third in vote estimation by absorbing part of the socialist and Podemos vote. According to the poll, the formation of the also Minister of Labor would obtain 12.3% of the votes, 1.7 points more than in April, while Ioene Belarra's party would lose six tenths, reaching 6.1% .
It should be noted that the sum of the estimated vote of the two left formations reaches 18.4%, a figure never reached by Unidas Podemos and Más País in the CIS series of this legislature, and which represents three points more than the that those of Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón achieved in the 2019 elections.
Thus, Vox is once again relegated to fourth place with 10.6% of the vote estimated by the CIS, half a point below April and more than four points below the last generals.
For its part, Ciudadanos, which in April had slightly rebounded to a vote estimate of 2.8%, loses half a point and sees its chances of maintaining representation in Congress evaporate.
Regarding the Catalan independence parties, ERC and Junts, they recovered two three tenths of a point compared to the April poll to stand at an estimated vote of 2.4% in the case of the Republicans and 1.2% in the case of the post-convergent, both 1.2 points behind the results of 2019.
Regarding the evaluation of leaders, the second vice president and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, continues to be one more barometer the best positioned with an average score of 4.79. She is followed by President Pedro Sánchez (4.39) and the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo (4.11). Santiago Abascal, from Vox, for his part, obtained the worst rating (2.86), as has been the case in recent CIS barometers. The Minister of Social Rights and Secretary General of Podemos, Ione Belarra, who was asked for the first time on this issue, is valued at 3.36, well below Díaz.
In terms of confidence, Sánchez also comes out better than Feijóo, with data very similar to those of the same study in April. 31.6% of those surveyed affirm that the socialist leader generates a lot or enough confidence in them, while in the case of the popular one it is 23.9% who have this perception. On the contrary, two thirds indicate that the President of the Government inspires little or no confidence in them. This data increases when asking about the former president of the Xunta de Galicia (73.7%).
Pedro Sánchez is also the favorite to continue leading the Executive with 20.7% of support, while 15% favor Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Yolanda Díaz, despite being the most valued of hers, is in third position in this ranking, with 12.7% of those surveyed who prefer her to hold the presidency.
Spaniards place the economic crisis as the main problem facing the country (39.3% of those surveyed affirm this), while unemployment (33.9%) and political problems in general (22.1%) They remain in second and third position, respectively. The CIS also reflects that the fourth most relevant concern of citizens continues to be health (14.5%).
