In the context of recent geopolitical transformations, African countries are in a process of self-definition and aspire to a greater degree of autonomy. Increasingly, they seek an inclusive and equitable global order that reflects the reality of a continually changing world.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has served as a catalyst for global powers' increasing focus on Africa's positions and alignment in the global order. This episode has redirected the efforts of the powers towards the African continent, in an attempt to secure and expand their influence in this new geopolitical and economic frontier. The growing relevance of Africa is reflected in the notable increase in high-level diplomatic visits starting in 2022, including countries such as the United States, China, Russia, Germany and France.
This article aims to analyze the crucial aspects of this complex dynamic. First, it will explore how the conflict in Ukraine has impacted Africa's position in the global order and its quest for greater autonomy and agency. Secondly, it will discuss the development of common African positions, using as an example the Sustainable Development Goals and Africa's position in the UN Security Council. Finally, it will focus on African demands for reforms in international institutions, examining reform demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Security Council and the G-20.
In an increasingly divided world, African states find themselves caught in the complex web of geopolitical tensions. China and the European Union are the two main trading partners of African countries, followed by a diverse range of powers from the global south and north, such as the United States, Turkey, Russia, Thailand, India, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Brazil and others. In its management of relations with these great world powers, Africa faces a challenging position. Notably, these external actors harbor strong interests in Africa, with motivations ranging from historical ties to economic investment and strategic advantage.
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, this global polarization exacerbates the delicate diplomatic balance required by African countries. Striving to maintain beneficial alliances without taking sides in distant disputes is a difficult endeavor, and Africa's success has been mixed. These nations must carefully weigh their decisions, considering the potential impact on their individual interests and overall stability.
In the case of South Africa, the country's alleged involvement in controversial incidents – such as co-hosting a naval exercise with China and Russia and possibly smuggling weapons to Russia – has raised questions about its non-aligned stance. These cases highlight the potential mismatch between declared foreign policies and actual actions. However, it is crucial to note that these challenges are not uniform across the continent, with varying degrees of success observed in different African states.
In their pursuit of non-alignment, African countries seek to protect their autonomy and promote their interests without being co-opted in global disputes. In some cases, this means distancing itself from conflicts like the Ukraine crisis. At other times, it requires selective participation in matters that directly affect the continent.
An excellent example of this selective participation occurred in June 2022, when the presidents of Senegal and the African Union visited Russia. Amid rising tensions in Ukraine, which threatened Africa's food security, these leaders lent legitimacy to the final agreement, which was mediated by the United Nations and Turkey, and which guaranteed uninterrupted access to grains and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine. This action demonstrated a strategic maneuver to preserve African interests despite global conflicts.
As the world's attention shifts to the conflict between the West and China, Africa's geopolitical role becomes more complex. The continent's historical ties and extensive trade relations with both sides of the divide make it increasingly challenging to remain neutral. The pressure and influence of these global forces often puts African nations in difficult situations.
However, despite these obstacles, African countries have demonstrated resilience. In June 2023, a peace mission was carried out to Russia and Ukraine, in which leaders from South Africa, Zambia, Comoros, Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda participated. This initiative, far from being just a collective initiative, became a platform to highlight African continental approaches to non-alignment, despite the divisions that the conflict has sown on the continent.
As demonstrated by the involvement of African leaders in Ukraine and Russia, Africa's non-alignment position should not be misinterpreted as a reluctance to engage internationally. Instead, it reflects an evolving strategy to maintain autonomy while pursuing mutually beneficial relationships with world powers. As Africa continues to manage this delicate balance, the region's determination to defend its interests and navigate complex global dynamics remains at the forefront.
Africa's ambition to increase its autonomy and more effectively direct its affairs, including its presence in global politics, has been shaping its participation and position on the international stage for several decades. A clear desire for self-determination is evident in the creation of the African Union (AU) in 2002, which arose in response to the apparent inability or international disinterest in dealing effectively with deep crises such as those that occurred in Somalia and Rwanda during the 1990s. . In this scenario, the slogan “African solutions for African challenges” becomes a call both for the reshaping of the global order and for action in response to global apathy in times of instability.
African leaders understand that their impact on the global system is limited if they act in isolation or in small groupings, which is why they have sought to increase their joint voice and influence on the world stage. Multilateralism can favor these smaller actors, establishing universal rules of the game and promoting a platform for collaboration and consensus.
Thus, African countries have undertaken a concerted effort to establish common positions when interacting with external partners, seeking to develop patterns of interaction that not only take into account power limitations, but also identify means to overcome these imbalances. They recognize the need to present a unified front at the international level in order to negotiate with a position of greater strength and equity.
Of course, on a continent with 54 states, total cohesion on every issue is an ambitious and sometimes unattainable goal. However, when coherence and unity are achieved, these common positions contribute significantly to ensuring greater African influence in global discussions.
An example of this was Africa's common position on climate change at the Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in 2015, where a significant impact was achieved on the global narrative and the final agreement. Another relevant case is the common position adopted in the United Nations post-2015 Development Agenda, which had considerable influence on what eventually became the Sustainable Development Goals. In both cases, the ability of African countries to present a unified front strengthened their position and helped ensure more favorable outcomes for the continent.
Furthermore, to increase Africa's influence in global decision-making, countries on the continent have sought to establish common positions through the AU Peace and Security Council and elected African members of the UN Security Council. Since 2019, the UN Security Council has witnessed a series of occasions in which the three African states represented on the Council (with two-year mandates) have increasingly managed to unify positions, issue joint statements and press releases. . These efforts have contributed significantly to increasing Africa's influence in Council discussions, especially on matters related to the African continent.
In 2019, during the fall of Al Bashir in Sudan, the unified position of the A-3 (the three African members on the Council), unprecedented in previous years, was essential to push for a stronger voice for the Council of Peace and Security of the African Union, prior to any decision of the UN Security Council. This position managed to influence the position of the Council countries, leading Germany and the United Kingdom to give up the African Union initiative, and prompting Russia and China to a more constructive engagement on the issue.
African countries have been seeking to increase their presence within international organizations, advocating for reforms in various multilateral structures. These demands are based on the assessment that, if international institutions do not fully represent the global composition of states, their capacity to contribute to strengthening responses to global challenges is diminished.
The UN is a relevant case. When it was created in 1945, only 4 African countries were independent and members of the UN. Now, in 2023, Africa has 54 members, the largest regional group in the UN, but it has no permanent seat on the UN Security Council, the UN's highest decision-making body and the only one where The decisions are legally binding. Annually, 70% of all Security Council decisions tend to relate to Africa.
In 2005, African states joined forces to create the Ezulwini Consensus, a milestone in African politics that highlights the continent's desire for more meaningful participation in global decision-making. This consensus, while sometimes posing challenges for member states in trying to achieve a qualified majority in the UN General Assembly for votes on potential reform, is an affirmation of the need for greater representation of Africa in global bodies. decision making.
The Ezulwini Consensus, also known as the Common African Position on United Nations Reform, addresses several key issues, highlighting the need for more equitable and fair representation in the UN Security Council. African states have requested both permanent and non-permanent seats, which would increase Africa's influence on Council decisions.
Furthermore, the Consensus advocates for the inclusion of Africa in global economic decision-making, highlighting the need for the continent's participation in organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. The goal is to achieve a fairer distribution of global resources and greater participation in the formation of international economic policies.
Likewise, the Ezulwini Consensus emphasizes the importance of regional and subregional cooperation, and the need for greater cooperation and coordination with African regional organizations. These organizations play a crucial role in maintaining peace and security, promoting economic development and resolving conflicts on the continent.
Despite Africa's efforts, it remains a challenge to empower African voices and their capacity for action within the G-20, an influential international forum that brings together the twenty largest economies in the world and whose African representation is limited. With only South Africa as a member, Africa remains severely underrepresented in the G-20, and the continent is often perceived as a passive subject rather than an agent.
Africa is addressed primarily from the perspective of how G-20 countries can support African development, giving little room to elevate Africa's agency and voice in G-20 decisions. Collectively, if we compare the membership of the African Union with other members of the group, the group of AU countries would be the fifth largest economy within the G-20, surpassing countries such as Japan, Germany or Russia.
Ultimately, there have been numerous discussions to allow the African Union to join the G-20, as the main bloc of developing countries. Africa's presence in this forum is expected to provide a stronger voice to the continent, allowing it through its representation in the African Union to participate in critical decisions in terms of global economic cooperation.
The solution to this growing global division is undoubtedly a challenge, but it becomes essential to create space for a more balanced interaction between the global north and south. Although current fears in world politics largely focus on the possibility of a new cold war between East and West, reality reveals a deeper problem. This political divide is giving rise to a growing us versus them dichotomy between the global north and south.
In this sense, the global north may feel displaced by the global south's apparent disagreement with its stance regarding the violation of territorial integrity in Ukraine.
On the other hand, many in the global south perceive pressure from the West to take sides in distant disputes that concern them little. Likewise, there is growing concern in the global south about the parties' unwillingness to authentically engage these countries as potential mediators and bridge-builders in these disputes. It is evident that much remains to be done.
In this context, it is crucial to examine and understand the ever-evolving role of Africa, with its 54 distinct nations, on the global stage. It is not a homogeneous monolith, but rather a diverse group with different levels of autonomy and influence. Attention must be paid to how Africa, as a whole, is adapting and responding to changing geopolitical dynamics.
The West must learn to accept that Africa is no longer completely under its sphere of influence and that the continent is increasing its interaction with other global powers. For Africa, it is more about diversifying its international relations than replacing its existing ties. In this sense, we must get used to a new role played by African countries, one that, while presenting challenges, also offers the possibility of a more balanced approach to international relations.
Gustavo de Carvalho is a senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), specializing in African governance and diplomacy.
