Three million more ballots in the polls, in the general elections on July 23 compared to the municipal elections on May 28. This is the magic number of extra votes that the PSOE high command clings to to try to stop the blue wave that Alberto Núñez Feijóo is surfing to reach Moncloa, and to be able to achieve, on the other hand, the re-election of Pedro Sánchez.
In Moncloa and Ferraz they warn that traditionally in Spain the generals have a greater participation than the municipal ones, precisely about three million votes. "It is a very important fishing ground," the Socialists point out. "Without a doubt, there may be a great vein there," they emphasize.
And they consider that now they have a "new opportunity" to mobilize the progressive electorate and reverse the victory of the PP in the municipal elections in the general elections, which they emphasize was barely more than three percentage points of the total number. Last Sunday, the PP reached 31.5% of the total vote in the local elections and the PSOE stayed at 28.1%. The 763,000 votes with which the popular ones overtook the socialists is not an insurmountable difference, they assure in Ferraz, if a greater participation is also registered on 23-J.
The paradigmatic example that they expose in the PSOE is that of the years 2007 and 2008. In the municipal elections of 2007 there were 22.2 million valid votes, with a participation of 63.2%. In the 2008 general elections, 25.7 million votes were counted, and a participation of 73.8%. In other words, there were more than three million more votes between the two appointments with the polls.
In addition, the PSOE pays particular attention to those elections because the PP won the municipal elections in 2007, with 7.9 million votes compared to the 7.7 million ballots that the Socialists collected. But in the general elections immediately following in 2008, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was re-elected with a record 11.2 million votes, while Mariano Rajoy continued in opposition after collecting 10.2 million ballots.
It is just the scenario that the socialists hope to repeat, although with the absolute certainty of the difficulty of the effort. In any case, they ensure that the game is not lost beforehand. “There is a party”, they insist again, despite the tremendous moral blow suffered last Sunday, by losing most of the territorial power of the PSOE.
Although nothing will be simple, quite the opposite. On the one hand, the fact that the general elections are held in the middle of summer can have a demobilizing effect that affects electoral participation.
In addition, some leaders warn that if on 28-M there was a vote to punish Sánchez, with all the more reason it could take place on 23-J, in which he himself is already the candidate. It is a very serious risk, they warn. And they believe that it will be difficult for voters' perception to change much in just two months, since the municipal elections effectively became a first round of the general elections.
However, the majority in the PSOE admit that advancing the generals was the least bad of all possible options. On 23-J, the PP and Vox may not have an absolute majority, which they think could have been inevitable if the general elections had been delayed, as planned, until December.
