The cold stone and marble of the imposing Stormont Castle, on the outskirts of Belfast, saw this Saturday how Ulster closed one chapter of its history and began another. The oath as leader of the Executive of Michelle O'Neill, Catholic and Republican, means an authentic political and psychological revolution. She avoided triumphalism and did not gloat at all, but for nationalists it is a great victory, and many Protestants see it not only as a defeat but as a humiliation.
An Assembly created a little over a century ago as “of the Protestants and for the Protestants”, in a province separated from the rest of Ireland with the partition as a refuge for the unionists, is now led by the vice president of a party that was the arm politician of the IRA provisionals, the armed band that for three decades used bombs and terror to combat the British State and seek the reunification of the island.
A dilemma, in the world of logic, is an argument composed of two contrary and disjunctive propositions, so that by denying or granting any of them what was wanted to be proven is demonstrated, and the conclusion can be paradoxical. Julius Caesar, Napoleon, Lincoln, Kissinger, Bismarck, De Gaulle, Churchill and the great statesmen of history would have difficulty understanding that of Ulster. Even Machiavelli would choke.
On the one hand, due to demographic changes and progressive secularization, unionists and Protestants no longer rule in a place that they consider theirs and was conceived as theirs. On the other hand, the Republicans of Sinn Fein, to consolidate themselves as the main political force, need to improve the economy, infrastructure and public services of the province. But if they succeed, they will demonstrate that the State they intend to destroy works, and they will be throwing stones at their own roof and going against their ultimate goal of reunification. A full-fledged dilemma.
But that is a dilemma that Michelle O'Neill and Sinn Fein leave for later. This Saturday was a day of celebrations. The new chief minister avoided any reference to unity in her acceptance speech, placing emphasis on reconciliation and day-to-day issues such as inflation, lack of affordable housing and deteriorating healthcare. “No matter where we come from and whatever generation we are, we are facing a new dawn that is unimaginable for those of us who suffer discrimination, and we must build the future together,” she said.
The Northern Ireland Assembly has resumed sessions after exactly two years of pause due to the veto of the Democratic Unionist Party, the most voted among Protestants, opposed to the province remaining within the single market and the European customs union, the only formula found after Brexit to avoid a hard border between Ulster and the Republic, and which translates into restrictions on the British internal market and customs controls on goods coming from the United Kingdom. Some cosmetic tweaks to the circulation of goods and an injection of 3.6 billion euros from London made the unionists finally raise the barrier. Economic pressure also contributed, since the salary of the members of the Assembly had been cut by 30%, from 60,000 euros per year to 45,000.
Saying that Sinn Fein (the party with the most votes in the last elections) has taken power is not strictly correct, because the chief minister and his deputy (now the unionist Emma little-Pengelly, of the DUP) share it equally and both can bring down the institutions as a result of the complex balances required for both communities to sign the Good Friday Agreements in 1998. What the leader of the Executive does have is a much more important representative role. With all the other parties within the Government and with ministerial portfolios, the official opposition will be led by the social democratic SDLP, which was the main nationalist force until it began to be swallowed up by the political arm of the IRA with the arrival of peace.
The symbolism of this Saturday and the generational change point to a certain impulse towards the reunification of the island, but the dilemma and paradox of Ulster are very complicated, with the province made up of 40% nationalists, 40% unionists and 20% neutral, who tend to favor the status quo. Despite Brexit (which most people opposed), the deterioration of public services and the fact that the Republic has become more buoyant, secular and pluralistic, the latest poll indicates that only one in three Irish people are supporters of the territorial unit, and half is contrary. The reasons are mainly economic. Those from the south do not want to assume a bill that would be enormous (greater than that of the integration of Germany), and those from the north are already doing well having the right to two passports and being within the British internal market and the European single market. The advance of Sinn Fein responds to the fact that it has brought together the entire nationalist bloc, while the unionists (with their own identity but whose status within the United Kingdom is not the same as that of the English, Scots or Welsh) have fragmented into multiple parties. who are fighting.
