Argentines have stopped, for the moment, the assault on the presidency of the controversial candidate of the ultra-libertarian right, Javier Milei. The Libertad Avanza candidate hoped to win the first round of the presidential elections held yesterday in Argentina. But, with 98.51% of the votes counted, Milei would have only achieved 29.98% of the votes compared to 36.68% for the government coalition candidate and current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
That said, the dramatic story of the meteoric rise of the libertarian populist and apologist for the military dictatorship cannot be considered settled. Faced with the Peronist Massa, at a time of triple-digit inflation and economic collapse and with center-right votes to be disputed, it cannot be ruled out that Milei will prevail in the second round on November 19.
With a record abstention, the outsider candidate of the hard right failed to mobilize the vote of the Argentines most disaffected with the political system, as some had anticipated. At the same time, Massa, integrated into an eclectic center-left alliance, managed to recover votes in the Peronist fiefdoms where Milei's populism seemed to be giving results. The traditional center-right candidate Patricia Bullrich – the main victim of the emergence in Argentine politics of the so-called “capitalist anarcho” – seemed to be the big loser of the election day with a poor result, around 23.83% of the votes. .
These votes from the center-right Together for Change campaign will be Milei's main target in the second round. Juan Schiaretti, the governor of Córdoba who has said he would be willing to work with Milei, got what may be a critical 6.78% if he moves to Milei. Miriam Bergman, candidate of the combative left, won 2.70%, which will surely pass to Massa but which would not be enough if she does not find votes for the center. This Sunday, Argentina registered 77.65% participation, the second lowest since the recovery of democracy after the last military dictatorship.
The result unleashed euphoria in Massa's campaign and astonishment in the media and political analysis centers. “That the economy minister in a country that has 140% inflation is the most voted is surprising,” said a veteran journalist in Buenos Aires.
The result of Massa's coalition -Unión por la Patria- in the elections for the governor of the province of Buenos Aires was even more overwhelming. Alex Kicillof, the current governor, would –according to the data given after 70% scrutiny– win more than 40% and won in the first round. This despite the scandal involving his chief of staff who was photographed on a yacht in Marbella in the middle of the election campaign.
Massa announced after the results that his intention is to "call a Government of national unity" if he wins the face-to-face match with Milei, "calling the best, regardless of their political strength."
Paradoxically, the surprising resilience of the Peronist vote - attributable to memories of the good years in the first decade of the century under the presidency of Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández - may be Milei's trump card in the second round.
If Bullrich had gone to the second round, a "cordon sanitaire" strategy against Milei and the extreme right would have been enough to attract the votes of the left. But this does not work the other way around. With Massa as a rival, Milei has many more It will only take a minimal gesture of moderation from the ultra candidate to win many votes from Bullrich whose main common denominator is a disdain for the Peronist center-left.
Mauricio Macri, the former president and heavyweight of the Bullrich coalition, was branded a traitor after his statement in the middle of the campaign that if Milei won, Bullrich's center-right “must vote in favor of reasonable reforms.” Macri later distanced himself from Milei by calling his team “immature and easily infiltrated.” Milei “cannot guarantee any changes,” he said.
But Bullrich's departure after yesterday's poor result makes it likely that Macri himself will support the ultra-libertarian candidate. Likewise, it is relatively easy to imagine a reconciliation between Milei and the banking and business elite. In a dispute between Milei and Massa, many market economists will indicate that Milei is the lesser evil. An indication of this is the support for the Milei program expressed by Alejandro Werner, the former head of Latin America at the International Monetary Fund in an interview with La Vanguardia. “I don't support Milei,” he said, but “someone with a big drive is needed to open the economy and liberalize it. And Javier Milei has that program.” A Milei team, led by banker Juan Napoli, met with IMF technicians last week in Marrakech.
Milei will try to repeat the success of Jair Bolsonaro and his far-right moment that prevailed over the center-left candidate in the second round of the 2018 Brazilian elections. The son of former Brazilian president Eduardo Bolsonaro traveled to Buenos Aires on Sunday.
Massa can also draw inspiration from Brazil with a version of Lula's 2022 campaign when he defeated Bolsonaro. His campaign has hired 20 Brazilian consultants, led by Edinho Silva – who replaces the Catalan Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí, according to the online politics media – to design a campaign that will focus on the youth electorate. Massa will undoubtedly focus on attacking Milei's extremism. But it is logical to think that Milei will moderate in the second round in search of Bullrich's votes.
That also has a risk: it will damage the main asset of the far-right candidate in the assault on the Casa Rosada, the image of a rebel, ex-rocker and outsider who is angry - like the majority of Argentines - with the old political system and the so-called "caste." ”.
