Sergei Zhirnov (Moscow, 1961), a former KGB commander who has been a refugee in France since 2001, believes that Yevgueni Prigozhin emerges victorious from the aborted insurrection and that, if he runs for president against Vladimir Putin, he will defeat him. Hence, he is in serious danger of being eliminated. Author of several books about his youth as a Soviet espionage agent and, last year, of L'engrenage, about the war in Ukraine, Zhirnov frequently intervenes as an analyst in various French media. In an interview with La Vanguardia, the Russian exile warned that the danger of implosion of the Russian State is today "enormous" due to the precedent of an unpunished mutiny, which could inspire other rebellions, due to the low motivation of the troops, due to the behavior contradiction of the Kremlin and by the centrifugal temptation of autonomous republics within the Russian Federation. Zhirnov notes that Putin himself set in motion "Russia's dislocation mechanism" when he recognized the Ukrainian separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.
The former KGB officer met Putin in 1980, when he was 19 years old and the later president interrogated him for two hours. Years later they met at the Andropov Institute, the spy university. Zhirnov is convinced that the head of the Kremlin is a fearful and weak man who tries to project the opposite.
Who has won this match, Putin or Prigozhin?
There is a loser and two winners. The loser is Putin, fully fledged. Above all Putin personally, Putin as president and as a representative of the state machine, because the Russian state, Russia, has lost. And there are two winners. The first is Prigozhin, he and his society, Wagner. The second is (Alexander) Lukashenko, the President of Belarus.
How should we interpret the role that Lukashenko has played?
Very easy. Lukashenko is a dictator who fears for his position even more than Putin for his because in 2020 he lost the elections but remained in power, so he is illegitimate in his country, which is much smaller and has much less power to fend. If Putin is overthrown in Russia, the second to come, a week later, will be Lukashenko. I did not want there to be an example of the overthrow of official power in a former Soviet republic. So he has done everything possible to keep Putin in power, to help him in a situation that was fatal for Putin.
What is the political future you see for Prigozhin?
Prigozhin is a populist. To summarize, he would say that he is a Russian Trump, a loudmouth who uses very flowery, direct language, which explains the truth. When he criticizes something about Russia, most of the time he is right. He does not lie about reality. But what he proposes is almost always wrong. But since he tells the truth, he is highly appreciated by the Russians. He fishes in the same electorate as Putin. It is the same people who vote for Putin who could vote for Prigozhin. And the people who are very right, far right, the Russian nationalists who are criticizing Putin today, they are happy with Prigozhin. He has a better chance than Putin to win the elections. If elections are held next year and Prigozhin runs against Putin, Prigozhin will win.
Is there, therefore, the risk of it being removed?
Yes, there is a risk that he will be removed, especially now, because he has tried to overthrow Putin. He not only tried it, but he had the means to do it. Putin has been through a lot of fear and has understood that Prigozhin was a person who could replace him and that, moreover, he was applauded by many Russians. He is today his most dangerous enemy. Therefore, Putin will do everything he can to make Prigozhin disappear before March next year.
But, for the West, Prigozhin as president of Russia would be even worse than Putin, right?
We do not know. That is why I have compared him to Trump. When he was elected in 2016, it was said that it was the end, that the United States would be led by an uncontrollable person, a populist, and so on. Actually, everything went well. The United States did not disappear, it did not fall apart. Even if Prigozhin comes to power, he will quickly learn that he can't do what he wants.
And what will be the consequences for the war in Ukraine of this surreal episode that has been experienced?
It can help Ukraine because, first of all, the morale of the Russian troops will be greatly weakened. They weren't very motivated anymore, but now, seeing that Prigozhin has been able to walk away from the front and even stage a rebellion for which he hasn't been punished, many Russians are beginning to wonder why we can't do the same. The Russians will lose motivation and that will play in Ukraine's favor. Secondly, for Putin it is a catastrophe at the state level. As I told you, Putin has lost personally and the Russian state has lost. When there is a riot that is not punished, it is deadly for the State. If we remember the coup against Gorbachev, which failed, the Soviet Union disappeared four months later.
Do you see the danger of implosion of the Russian state?
Yes, yes, there is a huge danger. I wrote about it in my book published last year, L'engrenage. I said that Putin is responsible for that. Putin himself opened Pandora's box, because it was he who, by recognizing the Luhansk and Donetsk republics (Russian-speaking territories in Ukraine), opened the possibility for all autonomous republics within Russia to do the same. It was he who launched the dislocation mechanism for Russia.
Could Putin be tempted by a flight forward to make people forget what happened?
Absolutely, that's it. It fits Putin's character. In effect, he will try to do something more spectacular.
For example?
It could even go as far as nuclear, to make us forget all that.
Have you been surprised by what has happened?
The mutiny did not surprise me. I was surprised by Putin's reaction, for two reasons. First he immediately declared Prigozhin an enemy, a criminal. And that is not in Putin's character because he does not like to make clear decisions. Putin is scared, weak. He pretends that he is very strong, but in reality he is very weak. The problem is that this time he behaved like a fort in the morning and, in the afternoon, he changed his position. This is even rarer in Putin because he does not admit his mistakes and above all he never backs down. That has surprised me. Everything else, no.
