For the first time since he invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it looks like Vladimir Putin can win. The president of Russia has put the entire country on a war footing and tightened his grip on power. He has secured military supplies abroad and helps pit the global South against the United States. And, more importantly, it is weakening the conviction in the West that Ukraine can (and should) emerge from the war as a thriving European democracy.
The West can do much more to thwart Putin's plans. If it wanted to, it could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf those of Russia. However, fatalism, complacency and a scandalous lack of strategic vision stand in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake and for that of Ukraine, the West urgently needs to emerge from this lethargy.
The reason a Putin victory is possible has more to do with resistance than with territorial conquest. Neither of the two armies is in a position to expel the other from the territory that it currently controls. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled. Russia is losing more than 900 men a day in the battle to take Avdivka, a city in the Donbas region. This is a defenders' war, and it could last for many years.
However, the battlefield shapes politics. Momentum affects morale. If Ukraine retreats, dissent in Kyiv will grow stronger. And so will the voices in the West who claim that sending money and weapons to Ukraine is wasteful. By 2024, at least, Russia will be in a stronger fighting position because it will have more drones and artillery shells, because its military has successfully developed electronic warfare tactics against some Ukrainian weapons, and because Putin is able to tolerate a horrific number. of casualties among his own men.
Growing foreign backing partly explains Russia's advantage on the battlefield. Putin has obtained drones from Iran and projectiles from North Korea. He has struggled to convince much of the global South that he does not have much at stake on the Ukrainian board. Turkey and Kazakhstan have become channels for goods that fuel the Russian war machine. The Western plan to limit Russian oil revenues by setting the price of its crude oil at $60 per barrel has failed because a parallel trading structure has emerged beyond the reach of the West. The price of Russian crude oil from the Urals is $64, up almost 10% since the beginning of 2023.
Putin is also winning because he has strengthened his position in the country. He now tells the Russians, absurdly, that they are immersed in a fight for survival against the West. Ordinary Russians may not like war, but they have become accustomed to it. The elite has tightened its control over the economy and is making a lot of money. Putin can afford to pay a lifetime's salary to the families of those who fight and die.
In the face of all that, it is not surprising that the mood in Kyiv is pessimistic. Politics has returned, and there is a fight for influence. President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top general Valery Zaluzhni have distanced themselves. Internal polls indicate that corruption scandals and fears for Ukraine's future have dented Zelensky's popularity among voters.
Western governments insist they remain as committed to Ukraine as ever. However, surveys around the world indicate that many are doubtful. In the United States, the Biden administration is working to get Congress to unlock more than $60 billion in funds. Next year's election campaign will soon get in the way. Donald Trump has promised peace in a very short period of time; and, if elected president, the United States could suddenly cut off the supply of all types of weapons.
Europe should prepare for that terrible possibility; and also for a decrease in American aid, whoever is in the White House. Instead, European leaders continue to act as if the generous Joe Biden will always be in office. The European Union has promised Ukraine €50 billion, but the money is being held up because of Hungary and, possibly, a budget mess in Germany. In December, the European Union should indicate that it is ready to start accession talks for Ukraine. However, many believe that the process will be intentionally prolonged because enlargement is harsh and threatens vested interests. There is a recording of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni saying (during a prank call) that Europe is tired. One might think that a Trump presidency would galvanize support for Ukraine, with Europe having to take responsibility for its own defense. In reality, as one European leader privately predicts, that support would fragment.
Such an eventuality would be a disaster. Perhaps in 2025 the strain of fighting a war will begin to get to Putin. Perhaps Russians will become increasingly bothered by forced mobilizations, inflation, and the diversion of social spending to the military. Now, there is no point in sitting back and waiting for the regime to collapse on its own. Putin can stay in power for years and, if he does, he will threaten new wars because that is the excuse for internal repression and the suffering of his own people. He has ruined the country's prospects by isolating it from Europe and driving its most enterprising citizens into exile. Without war, the vacuity of his rule would be exposed.
Europe must therefore plan for Putin as the main long-term threat to its security. Russia will rearm. He will have combat experience. Europe's defense planning must be designed to prevent Putin from perceiving a weakness on his flank; especially if he doubts President Trump's will to fight in the event of an attack against a NATO country.
The best way to deter Putin is for Europe to show determination and demonstrate now that it is fully committed to a prosperous, democratic and Westernized Ukraine. Weapons matter (especially air defenses and long-range missiles to attack Russian supply lines), which is why it is crucial that the United States approve the last tranche of aid. With arsenals already depleted, more needs to be done to increase the capacity of Western arms manufacturers. Sanctions must be targeted more effectively to separate the regime from the elite.
Political action in Europe is also essential. Putin will attack Ukraine's cities and subvert society to sabotage the country's transformation into a Western democracy. In response, Europe must redouble efforts to ensure Ukraine's progress with the promise of money and membership in the European Union. European leaders have not recognized the magnitude of the task; in fact, too many seem to shy away from it. It's nonsense. They should listen to Leon Trotsky: they may not be interested in war, but war interests them.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
