This text belongs to 'Político', the newsletter that Lola García sends every Thursday to the readers of La Vanguardia.
What seemed impossible four years ago is now about to become a reality. Even the independence movement assumed that it was difficult for the PSOE to take on the burden of approving an amnesty. It is true that Pedro Sánchez then ruled out that possibility with total conviction, but it is the same with which he now defends the amnesty. Electoral arithmetic is a powerful argument, which opens impregnable doors. But timing in politics is everything. If an amnesty is now feasible, it is because pardons were previously approved that contributed to calming the tension in Catalonia and because in all this time the independence movement has not broken any vase or crossed any red line. Sánchez relies on this calming effect so that the most daring move of his political career does not end in disaster.
These are the political consequences that the amnesty may have for all those prosecuted for crimes related to the attempted unilateral separation of Catalonia that was frustrated in 2017:
Even before the law was registered in Congress, eight members of the Council of the Judiciary asked its president for an extraordinary plenary session to discuss the amnesty. The tone of the request leaves no doubt about the indignation that spreads among a large part of the leadership of the judiciary, who consider the measure a blowing up of the democratic system. This governing body of judges has expired five years ago, but that does not mean that they are not erected as the main wall against the Government, which they accuse of promoting the "degradation, if not abolition, of the rule of law in Spain."
If that were the case, Spain would be at the same level as Poland (before the elections) and Hungary, countries that the EU has ordered to respect the rule of law. However, Sánchez is convinced that he has the support of his European partners on this issue. In fact, Brussels has reprimanded Spain on several occasions for lack of judicial impartiality, but derived from the blockage in the renewal of the CGPJ. The amnesty contributes to perpetuating the PP's refusal to negotiate these changes, at least until after the European elections next June.
The clash between the Government and the high judiciary is going to be thunderous. The Second Chamber of the Supreme Court, chaired by Manuel Marchena and which judged the leaders of the process, already received the granting of pardons very poorly, but above all the suppression of the crime of sedition, considering that it sponsored a possible resolution against their sentence by the European courts. The Supreme Court sentenced the independence leaders to high sentences for sedition, that is, for a crime that no longer exists. European judges may conclude that disproportionate sentences were therefore imposed on them.
The amnesty law must be applied by judges. Almost in all likelihood, the Supreme Court will present a question of unconstitutionality to the TC. This does not paralyze the law as such, but it does paralyze each particular case to which it is intended to be applied and each judge must wait for the Constitutional Court to resolve. The law is expected to affect around 400 people prosecuted for different crimes such as sedition, rebellion, embezzlement, disobedience or even terrorism. The wording of the rule tries to limit the possibility that judges could extend its application too much. It has been written under the prism that they will maneuver to get around it.
The agreement between the PSOE and Junts consists of two parts: the amnesty law and a political pact. The first includes an explanatory statement written almost in the terms that the socialists wanted to guarantee its constitutionality. For Puigdemont it represents a notable turn of speech, since at all times the respect for the Magna Carta is referred to and the references to the 9-N and 1-O consultations are always accompanied by their nature as acts outside the law. The explanatory statement appeals so much to the Constitution that the first time they read it, the ERC negotiators did not believe that Junts had given the green light to that text.
In exchange, the socialists have allowed Puigdemont to have more room for his story in the political pact, which is signed by both parties and which includes a dialogue table and a figure, probably international, who will accompany these conversations. These considerations are important because they represent the arguments with which some and others will try to explain the decision of the agreement to their loved ones.
The application of the amnesty will serve to prevent dozens of those prosecuted by the process from entering prison and will allow the return to institutional politics of leaders who starred in the events of 2017, such as Carles Puigdemont, Oriol Junqueras or Marta Rovira.
At Junts they assume that the former president of the Generalitat will once again be their candidate for the European elections, but that does not mean that he will be ruled out for the regional elections, scheduled in principle for February 2025. Especially when it is evident that Puigdemont is leading negotiations with the PSOE and wants to maintain control of that relationship for the duration of the legislature.
Right now Puigdemont does not have any position in the party, but his candidacy would be undisputed. In any case, it is too early to know his intentions. What will be known soon is the reaction that an agreement to invest Pedro Sánchez will have among the bases of the most radical Junts. It will be necessary to know what volume represents the Junts sector that considers that the Spanish Government can only engage in confrontation unless it recognizes an independence referendum and what steps it can take in the future.
Junqueras' decision may also depend on Puigdemont's intentions regarding his candidacy for the Catalans. Internal rumors proliferate in ERC about whether Pere Aragonès will repeat as a candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat or whether Junqueras will want to recover the electoral poster, which could mean an internal shake-up in the republican formation.
Thus, the amnesty could open some instability in the pro-independence formations or allow these parties to recover important figures in the face of the dispute for the Generalitat. We will see which of the two possible consequences prevails.
The concern in the PSOE about the wear and tear that the amnesty law will cause is evident, although Sánchez has managed to contain internal criticism, which has been reduced to the old guard represented by Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra, as well as one of the two presidents. regional representatives that still remain for the party, the Castilian-La Mancha Emiliano García-Page. The rest keep their ranks tight behind the objective of retaining the Moncloa.
Sánchez is confident that the amnesty will have the same analgesic effect on Catalan society and politics that the pardons had. Only in this way will he be able to claim the goodness of that measure in the future and recover the feathers lost along the way.
But if the PSOE has time to recover (except for the European elections), the PSC will submit to the scrutiny of the polls in Catalonia sooner. If Salvador Illa improves his already good results from the previous election, Sánchez will also be able to use it as an argument in favor of amnesty. Illa has defended the measure without hesitation. The leader of the PSC and the leader of the PSOE act in a consensual manner at all times and are convinced that the socialists will obtain returns from their commitment to the “reunion” in the next regional elections, despite the fact that IIla benefited in the last elections from the support of many Ciudadanos voters who could now view the amnesty with suspicion.
Sánchez needs to retain the support of Catalonia, since the PSOE is weaker than in the past in the other source of votes: Andalusia. In fact, if he has a chance of repeating as head of the Executive it is thanks to the Catalan electorate, who continues to turn his back on the PP.
The amnesty law is a gift for the PP. In the short term it is used to erode the Government with the message that it violates the principle of equality between Spaniards, since those accused will be able to evade the weight of justice. In the medium or long term, it allows the relationship with Junts to be normalized, which the PP has already begun to explore, aware that the absolute majority is a desire that is difficult to achieve and that reaching Moncloa may depend, as in the past, on the support of that formation and the PNV.
If the amnesty also has the effect of calming political tension in Catalonia, it would deflate one of the main arguments that has contributed to the growth of Vox. The popular ones could benefit from this phenomenon.
Thus, although the PP cries out for the approval of the amnesty, the paradox is that it could be useful in the future. In fact, the popular ones were very critical of the pardons, but they no longer question them in their speeches.
