The French unions have organized this Thursday the twelfth day of mobilization and strike against the pension reform. Participation has gone down, but that is of very relative importance because the country is awaiting the decision that the Constitutional Council will announce tomorrow, Friday, on the legality of the reform and the possibility of collecting signatures for a referendum.
There have been demonstrations in the main cities and the usual incidents due to the presence of extremist elements that have clashed with riot police, especially in Paris, but also in Lyon, Nantes and Rennes.
After twelve calls from the unions and being the eve of a decisive arbitration of the high constitutional instance, it is normal that there has been less motivation to support the protest. Still, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets. In sectors such as education, follow-up on unemployment was very modest, only 5% of the staff.
Disruptions were also minor on railways and public transport. Instead, the Paris garbage collectors began another strike.
The opinion of the Constitutional Council can calm the spirits or exacerbate the serious political and social crisis that France has been experiencing for months. This nine-member body, the so-called "wise men", headed by former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, has various possibilities before it. It could fully validate the reform or reject it outright, alleging that the Constitution has been violated in the procedure chosen to carry it out. It's more likely that he's just tweaking it, invalidating some minor elements.
Another fundamental decision has to do with the petition of 252 parliamentarians for authorization to collect signatures -4.8 million are needed- to call a referendum within nine months. In that consultation, the people would be asked if it should be prohibited to place the legal retirement age beyond 62 years, the current limit (and not the 64 that the reform provides). If it goes by way of referendum, both chambers will have to pronounce before. The reform would be frozen and the referendum would be held in July 2024, shortly before the Paris Olympic Games. This would be a nightmare scenario for President Macron and his government.
Whatever the decision of the Constitutional Council may finally be, Macron's political future looks complicated. There seems to be no alternative but to try to reach a de facto pact or coalition with Los Republicanos (LR, traditional right) to avoid four years of instability. There is already talk of a possible replacement at the head of the Government to facilitate this maneuver. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who has been in the job for 11 months, could lose it. She's pretty burned out. In France, her position is always a "fuse", a scapegoat, which presidents use to fight crises and move forward.
