The moment of no return was on November 6 of last year, when Pablo Iglesias cried: “We can must be respected!” Not even two years had passed since the “deazo” by which he designated Yolanda Díaz as his successor, but the always leader of Podemos couldn't take it anymore and exploded. Along the way, signs had emerged that things were not going well, such as that event by Díaz with Ada Colau, Mónica Oltra and Mónica García in which the vice president predicted: “It is the beginning of something wonderful.” It was the beginning of a distancing that has been macerating until culminating in this week's breakup, with consequences for the future of the left and governability.
The conflict was served from the moment Díaz began to make decisions on his own, without consulting Iglesias or Irene Montero or Ione Belarra, back in the spring of 2022. The plant was already born crooked, since the choice of the Iglesias took the vice president as successor thinking about political and social leadership, but not from the party. A PCE militant, Díaz was invested as an electoral poster, but without control over Podemos. And she wanted to build her own device rather than submit to the guidelines of others. In parallel, the purple ones were losing electoral weight and feeling increasingly humiliated. So the transfer of Podemos deputies to the mixed group was a given, although its speed was surprising, having just inaugurated the legislature.
It seemed that the most profitable thing for Podemos was to act as a critical voice within Sumar and wait for Díaz to throw them out to gloat in the role of victim. Those around the vice president assured that there would be no desertion due to economic convenience. Podemos's finances, in fact, are not buoyant, but it turns out that the jump to the ministries of Ernest Urtasun and Sira Rego has left two free seats as MEPs that will be occupied by two members of Podemos, an unexpected financial injection. The purple ones want to undertake the recovery plan as soon as possible starting with the European elections in June. This is how Iglesias began in his day. And they need time to establish a profile with their voters.
To do this, they will negotiate directly with the PSOE and will have their own voice in Congress. The strategy is to confront the Government now that they are no longer in it. What's more, they have been fired and they can claim that it is because they are uncomfortable with power. It is about contrasting proposals with the socialist side, as Iglesias has always done, to emphasize that the PSOE is condescending to the powerful, but also to Díaz, in a more subtle way. For the voter, it is difficult to distinguish Podemos from Sumar. The purple ones need to differentiate themselves. They will present themselves as the brave left against the lip service (PSOE) and the submissive (Sumar) in economics, social policy and above all feminist, taking advantage of the anodyne profile chosen by the socialists for that ministry. Podemos will fight a few battles, but those they raise will be serious, although their intention is not to overthrow the legislature. The first thing Ione Belarra did was inform Minister Félix Bolaños that Pedro Sánchez's mandate is not at risk.
The figure to be relaunched is Irene Montero, a probable candidate for the Europeans. Podemos will try to strip its new leader of the heavy backpack of the ministry. Montero was one of the best known in the government, above Díaz, although her evaluation is much worse. But her leadership is aimed at a very specific sector of the left. If Díaz has the image of a good but ductile negotiator, Montero will delve into the profile of a strong woman, with courage, who does not bend. Like a left-wing Margaret Thatcher, she fits in with the defense of a firm left against the PSOE or its supposed satellites like Sumar. That's why Díaz finds it so irritating that the socialists propose going together in Galicia, since they support the thesis of Sumar's docility. On the left of the PSOE there is always fear of the socialist siren songs that seduced so many: from Rosa Aguilar to Cristina Almeida or Diego López-Garrido.
Deciding whether Podemos will succumb, take over Sumar, or both will coexist is a matter of time. What is certain is that the split adds complications for Sánchez. The president began to take care of his old/new ally by underlining in an interview on Antena 3 that Podemos is “a progressive force” with whom it is not a problem to negotiate. The PSOE will have to deal with a Catalan front in which not only Junts and ERC compete, but even Carles Puigdemont with the political myth that he and his people have built around his figure. Also with a Basque front in which Bildu is fighting to unseat the PNV. And now the left flank is tense. In turn, Podemos will try to form a left-wing bloc with Bildu, ERC and BNG. And perhaps a possible alliance on the right between the PNV and Junts.
Sánchez will not be able to search for variable geometry. All the pieces will have to fit. The partners are aware that the first budgets have to be approved. From there, the European elections will set the course and weight of each one. And not only Podemos sees them as a turning point. They will also be the same for the PSOE and the PP.
