The elections to the Basque Parliament, from which the next Lehendakari and the next Basque Government will emerge, will take place on April 21. The Lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, will announce this afternoon the chosen date, which will be precisely the day that sounded the loudest, in an appearance that will take place at 6:30 p.m., after an extraordinary Government Council.
Urkullu opts, in this way, to shorten the mandate by a few months, preventing the Basque elections from coinciding with European elections that will be marked by PSOE-PP polarization. The Lehendakari makes this decision once he has fulfilled the Government Program and after a lengthy mandate at the legislative level.
In this way, the Basque Country takes over from Galicia, although in the Basque case the state projection of the electoral event has other conditions.
The Basque elections are presented, in principle, as a close fight between the PNV and EH Bildu, the two formations that today hold 69% of parliamentary representation.
The Jeltzales have opted to replace Iñigo Urkullu, Lehendakari for three terms, as a candidate, and have opted for Imanol Pradales, a university professor on leave and a doctor in Sociology and Political Science, 48 years old, to try to overcome the poor results of the elections. of May and July. EH Bildu, meanwhile, has opted for Pello Otxandiano, a 40-year-old doctor in Industrial Engineering, to underpin his pragmatic turn and consolidate his arrival at new voting grounds.
In the current Basque Parliament, the Jeltzales lead the Abertzale coalition by 10 seats (31 versus 21), but the polls show a much tighter picture, with both formations practically tied and moving within a range of between 25 and 28 seats.
If this equality is confirmed, it would be an unprecedented fact, since the distance between the PNV and the Abertzale coalition, born in 2011, has never fallen below 6 seats (in 2012, 27 for the PNV compared to 21 for EH Bildu). Before the emergence of this coalition, the distance between the PNV and the nationalist left, the third or fourth political force before its illegalization, was much greater.
This struggle will be the main point of attention, although more important if possible will be knowing if the PNV and the PSE of Eneko Andueza add up to a majority. Jeltzales and socialists have confirmed their willingness to reissue the pact that currently allows them to govern the main Basque institutions.
The PSE, in this sense, has clearly ruled out bets such as that of Pamplona, where it supported the EH Bildu candidate in his motion of censure against the mayor of UPN, Cristina Ibarrola, and has put ground in between with the nationalist party. . If the PNV is the leading force and, in addition, manages to reach 38 seats with the socialists, it is more than likely that a scenario similar to that of the legislature that is coming to an end will be repeated, with a Basque Government chaired by the Jeltzales, with Pradales of lehendakari, and advisors of the two formations.
The polls give a slight advance to the PSE, which would go from 10 to 11-12 seats; However, these polls place the sum of these formations at the limit of the absolute majority, in some cases slightly below. If the PNV is not the first force and does not gain a majority with the socialists, its position will be more compromised.
As for the PP, the polls place them on their electoral ground, maintaining their current 6 representatives in the Basque Chamber. The candidacy of Javier de Andrés, former deputy general of Álava, would not improve the results of his predecessor, Carlos Iturgaiz, or it would do so very timidly. In this sense, it is unlikely that the Basque elections will serve to strengthen the position of the PP, shore up the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and wear down the socialists, as has happened in the Galician elections.
Finally, another point of attention will be how the seats are distributed in the political space of Podemos and Sumar, who risk being left without parliamentary representation due to their commitment to running divided. The two formations, headed by Miren Gorrotxategi and Alba García, respectively, will fight for the same electorate and it remains to be seen how the votes are divided and even if there is a punishment vote for that division.
