Two decades ago Mikhail Khodorkovsky (Moscow, 1963) was an energy magnate and the sixteenth fortune in the world, according to Forbes, with 15 billion. He ran the oil giant Yukos after a career in the Komsomol, the youth organization of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. But everything fell apart when the Kremlin accused him of evading taxes. He spent ten years and two months in a Siberian prison. Today he lives in London and is one of Putin's main opponents.
The world is in suspense. How do you see the future of Europe with the tensions in Ukraine and the recent open ones in the Middle East?
I think that in the medium term Ukraine will continue to be the main problem and I expect the situation in Israel to be relatively complex in the short term. I think that with the level of support that Ukraine is receiving we are going to have at least one more year of war and the economic development of Europe will not be very favored. But it should at least encourage Europe to start reindustrializing: in the military industry, in energy, developing its own sources, and not just green energy. In Spain, for example, there is enough solar energy, but there is not enough for the rest of Europe where it is not so sunny. I think nuclear power would be needed, and difficult decisions will have to be made. Where we should be careful is with our changes in support for the far right in Europe. Spain is the country with the most recent dictatorship. My impression is that the rest of Europe has already forgotten its dictatorships. Totalitarianism might want to try again.
There are energy disturbances again and you were an important businessman in the sector. Do you see the possibility that these conflicts will lead to another crisis?
If there is an expansion or widening of the crisis in the Middle East, it could happen. But, hopefully, this is not going to happen. I see no reason to think there will be a serious disruption to the power supply. I think it plays more with fears.
Would Putin be interested in raising this energy tension?
Putin has a vested interest in injecting greater chaos into world politics. Energy prices are just one element of that game.
What consequences for oil and gas would there be if Iran became involved in the conflict in the Middle East?
What should worry us is that the conflict in the Middle East will grow into a conflict between nuclear powers. But, of course, the conflict will also have an impact on prices. World energy consumption is currently around one million tons per day, which is equivalent to about 100 million barrels of oil per day; They are exact figures. If Iran gets involved, it would not be significant, since Iran produces about two million barrels a day. It could mean a 2% reduction in world production. The problem is the Gulf oil, whether it would be blocked. This would have a significant impact.
The gas market is also under tension again. What situation do you see on the horizon?
Gas production is quite diversified. Several countries have the capacity to receive large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and many countries in Europe are working in this direction. So I think capacity is already increasing in the right direction. I see no reason for a big explosion in prices like the one at the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Do you think that the veto on Russian oil and gas and the rest of the sanctions are being effective?
Yes. I think the sanctions seeking to boycott Russian oil in Europe have been effective because they have basically closed the market to Russia. And that was the premium market. Who buys Russian oil and gas? China and India, which pay lower prices. Furthermore, transportation has now multiplied and become much more expensive for Russia. The problem is that high oil prices offset those losses. If the US were to negotiate with the Saudis to lower oil prices, it would make things much more difficult for Putin.
Do you think Europe should be tougher on Russia?
I think this is not only for Europe, but also for other countries. If the West wants technological sanctions to have an effect, they have to apply them much more than now. In the case of oil, they are being fulfilled in Europe, for the moment, quite well.
How do you see the future of Russia?
I believe that Russia's future trajectory was predetermined by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Today I don't think Russia is going to collapse, for now. But how long Putin remains in power will have an impact. If there is a regime change in Russia, Ukraine could return to its internationally recognized borders within five years. Furthermore, any future Russian government that wanted to restore good relations with the West would have to pay compensation to Ukraine. I also think that the problem is the current state of the Russian population, psychological, mental... It will take time, several decades, for it to return to normal. If we manage to put our project into practice, turning Russia into a parliamentary republic, with deep federalization, imperial tendencies will also diminish, since the regions will be forced to look after their own interests, and their leaders will have other ways to legitimize their power than external aggression.
Is it possible that he will lead an opposition movement in Russia?
We are a democratic opposition. But there are other opposition groups against Putin. There are also nationalists, there are communists, they are also in opposition to Putin. Therefore, a coalition model is needed. The democratic opposition speaks on behalf of about 20% of the Russian population. So if we want to transition to a democratic model, we would have to build coalitions. But if we talk about a single leader again, it will be another vicious circle of authoritarianism in Russia, which I would not like to be part of.
