Forty-seven days after the war began, Hamas needs a truce and the Israeli government needs to reduce the criticism of the families who demand that it prioritize the release of the hostages. The agreement benefits both, but only because it allows them to gain time to continue fighting.
Hostages are just bargaining chips. This is its reason for being. They are victims of one of the cruelest crimes that can be committed against a human being. They have lost control of their lives. Others decide whether they will live or die, and this decision is not made on moral principles, but strategic ones.
Hamas could save the 236 it captured on October 7. You just have to surrender. Israel could do it too. Simply announce that the terrorist organization is no longer a threat. Although it is not entirely true, it is what he has said every time he has wanted to put an end to one of the recurring military operations in Gaza.
But now it's different. The massacre of October 7 prevents this. Israel cannot leave the Strip until it has killed the last Hamas guerrilla. You must appear strong, implacable. He has no other way to survive. He was born in war and remains in war. None of the agreements he has signed with her enemies have brought him peace.
Now it's different for Hamas too. There is no hope for the Palestinian people. Israel is on track to annex the West Bank and war will not make Gaza a better place to live. Everything will be much more difficult for the Palestinians and their suffering will keep the Hamas cause alive when the last terrorist falls.
This has been the case since the beginning of the conflict in 1948. Israelis and Palestinians have lived to fight another day. Now, therefore, it is different, but not much. The fight will continue. The truce is nothing more than a tactical pause, a supply of supplies.
It is also true that it could be an opportunity. The agreement is designed to reward the release of hostages. The more Hamas releases, the longer the ceasefire will last and the more Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli prisons. Small steps encourage confidence. If you comply, I comply. And trust rehumanizes the enemy, facilitates the dialogue that precedes negotiation.
But I fear this will be another missed opportunity. One more in this war.
A few days after it began, Hamas freed four women. He hoped that Israel would thank the gesture with a ceasefire, but that was not the case.
On October 25, Egypt and Qatar agreed to an agreement. Hamas would release about 50 hostages in exchange for a truce. Israel demanded the list of those who would leave. Hamas said it did not have it. He kept the captives in various hiding places. He had no way to identify them all without grouping them together, and he couldn't do so without jeopardizing their positions. A few hours later, Israel began the ground offensive.
At the beginning of the war, few in Israel talked about the hostages. More than a week passed before the families organized and filled the wall that surrounds Kyria, the military base in the center of Tel Aviv that houses the Ministry of Defense, with the portraits of those captured and the yellow ribbons that identify the movement for his release.
The most radical ministers of the Netanyahu government still refuse to agree to his release with Hamas, much less in exchange for a truce. They say it will benefit the terrorists when the army tightens the siege on their dens.
Military strategists don't want to stop either. They believe that the best option the hostages have is definitive victory. The sooner it happens, the longer they will survive. And they say the same about the Palestinians in Gaza, who Hamas has turned into human shields.
Netanyahu, however, thinks about his future, about the commission that will determine his responsibility in the terrorist attack of October 7, about the corruption trial that he still has to face, about the thousands of people, family members of the hostages, who on Saturday They stood in front of his office in Jerusalem after walking for five days from Tel Aviv, and he understood that he needs applause from those Israelis who hate him the most. The victims of the Hamas massacre were, for the most part, left-wing people, supporters of an agreement with the Palestinians, Israelis who are at the antipodes of their political ideas.
It is difficult for history to absolve him, but if he has any option left, it is to crush Hamas and save all the hostages.
In exchange for releasing some 150 Palestinian prisoners, all women and minors, in exchange for a four-day truce to allow the entry of fuel and humanitarian aid into Gaza, Netanyahu will get Hamas to release fifty Jewish women and children. . If Hamas lets up to a hundred hostages go, Israel could release 300 prisoners and the truce could be extended for ten days.
Small steps, however, will hardly go further. Netanyahu insists that the pause will not imply the cessation of hostilities.
The United States, however, wants a definitive ceasefire. He understands that the more deaths there are in Gaza, and the number now exceeds 14,000, the greater the cause of Hamas will be. He also knows that terrorism will not disappear without a political strategy to resolve the conflict. Furthermore, for the first time in a long time, Israel needs its presence in the Mediterranean to keep Iran and Hezbollah at bay. It can put pressure on Netanyahu and this agreement is undoubtedly the result of this pressure. But can it go further?
It's very complicated.
Fifty years ago, at the end of the Yom Kippur War, the United States pressured Israel not to completely defeat the completely defeated Egyptian army. Back then, Israel was a much weaker state than today and gave in to the geostrategic interest of its great ally.
Netanyahu, however, cannot afford it. Although Israel benefits in the long run, he still dreams of the forgiveness of his people and sees no other way to achieve it than to continue fighting.
And something similar happens to Hamas. If he wants to enhance the legend of his cause, he needs to shed a lot more blood before giving up.
The enemies give a truce, but the swords are still raised.
