The world seems resigned to carnage in the Gaza Strip, but not to a large-scale regional conflict that spills over Israel's borders. The hypothesis has a scenario and contenders: the ongoing clashes between Hizbullah – a terrorist group infinitely more powerful than Hamas – and Israeli troops on the border with Lebanon, which yesterday forced the evacuation of the 20,000 inhabitants of Kiryat Shmona, something more than a minor Israeli settlement.
The Israeli Ministry of Defense announced the displacement of the twenty thousand inhabitants of Kiryat Shmona after a nightly round of missiles and stronger than usual skirmishes on the border with Lebanon since October 7. “In this way, we allow the Israeli defense forces to expand their operational freedom to act against the terrorist organization Hizbullah,” the Netanyahu government argued.
Compared to the magnitude of the war in Gaza – 3,700 deaths, mostly civilians, due to Israeli bombings – the figures for this potential second war front are ridiculous, just dozens of deaths. The invisible “drama” is that Hizbullah, a Shiite terrorist militia, constitutes Iran's armed extension in the region and has very powerful human resources, military equipment, organization and discipline, more powerful than those of Hamas in Gaza.
The leader of Hizbullah, Hassan Nasralah, has remained silent since the fateful October 7, when Hamas launched a terrorist incursion into Israel that, due to its magnitude and atrocities, could only provoke an extraordinary response and inexorably abort the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Sunni Saudi Arabia, a cataclysm for the old balances of the Middle East, in accordance with the Abraham Accords.
Had this tactical alliance been consummated between Tehran's two great enemies in the region, the Palestinians would be left more alone than ever – which is saying something – and the Islamic Republic of Iran, more “fenced” than ever.
Hizbullah's number two, Naim Qassem, has spoken these days: "We are completely prepared" to open a second front against Israel, which, in turn, says it is prepared to maintain a war in two areas of the country. Oman and Belgium, among others, yesterday joined the call for their residents to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.
The eviction of Kiryat Shmona is more relevant than that of 28 Israeli communities near Lebanon, already emptied days ago, because it creates a war zone free of population larger than the current Blue Line.
Meanwhile, the Gaza Strip continues without receiving foreign humanitarian aid, symbolized by a convoy of 20 trucks, because the closure of the Rafah border crossing continues. The White House announced last night that the delivery will take place within 24 to 48 hours. In the absence of medicine, drinking water and food, there, in Rafah itself, was the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, to clarify that “these trucks are not just trucks; They represent the difference between life and death.”
In this scenario where the story counts, a Hamas spokesperson announced last night the release of two US hostages, Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie, “for humanitarian reasons” and without receiving anything in return – according to the organization –, thanks to the mediation of Qatar, along with Egypt, the two states with the most experience in conducting this type of secret negotiations. Israeli sources reported yesterday that there are more than 20 minors under the age of 18 among the 200 hostages held by Hamas.
At the moment, the Israeli ground offensive has still not taken place. If the day before yesterday, the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, warned his troops that "they would soon see Gaza from within", he yesterday expanded his vision of the war that awaits them. The minister stated before the Foreign Affairs Committee that Israel will not stay in Gaza once the extermination of the Hamas leaders is completed. The thesis is that “with the terrorists neutralized” and “a new security reality” created, Israel will disengage from Gaza, without going into cumbersome details.
“We will demolish the Hamas organization. We will destroy their military and government infrastructure. “It is a phase that will not be easy and will have a price,” he stated. Later, he clarified that “it is not about a day, it is not about a week and, unfortunately, it is not about a month.”
Israeli troops abandoned the strip in 2005. When Hamas took control of the territory and evicted the Palestinian National Authority in 2007, Israel imposed a blockade that it now appears to deny, in view of the plans outlined by the minister defense.
“The terrorists have managed to close all political disputes. We are one hundred percent behind this Government. No matter the time and what the cost, we cannot live thinking that the attack could be repeated,” says Igor, an Israeli of Russian origin.
