Nightmare in the supermarket. It is not the title of a Christmas movie, but the harsh reality. Consumers are still assimilating the rise in olive oil prices and have to prepare for another possible shock, which this time affects citrus fruits and oranges in particular.
Although it has not yet been noticed on the shelves thanks to the resilient national production, the situation is hostile. In international markets, Chicago-traded orange juice futures (concentrated and frozen) have soared this year. It is the most profitable investment of 2023, side by side with bitcoin. After the correction of the last few weeks, the gains are still around 80%. Prices are at historic highs (since 1966) and have tripled in two years.
The perfect storm has two defined causes. Climate change due to the El Niño phenomenon and hurricanes (Ian and Nicole) have affected crops. And the arrival of a plague, through a bacteria that affects the quality of the fruit, and can kill the affected tree in a few years, threatens to spread from the Americas and Africa also to Europe (and Spain).
Last July, the US Department of Agriculture announced that it expected Florida, the country's citrus epicenter, to produce around 70% fewer orange boxes than in the 2020-21 season. Other exporters, such as Brazil and Mexico, also reduced their forecasts for the year, citing crop difficulties due to warmer weather.
Matthew Joyner, executive director of Florida Citrus Mutual, a company that brings together 2,000 companies in the sector, has stated in various media that orange juice production in the US is at its lowest levels for more than 100 years.
“Twenty years ago we produced 240 million boxes, now we will end the season with only 18,” Joyner complained. “Supply and demand dictate that with such a reduced harvest, there will be upward pressure on prices. “I would like to think we can deal with hurricanes and massive flooding, but in reality there is little we can do, from a production standpoint, to fight Mother Nature.” “Our last big harvest was five years ago. We are in a situation of practically zero supply,” they added from the Brazilian citrus sector, which accounts for 70% of world exports.
In Spain, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food foresees a production of 5.75 million tons of citrus in the 2023/2024 campaign, so the harvest will be “predictably similar” to the previous one, but 14.4% below the average of the last five.
However, the situation is likely to worsen. And it has a first and last name: Candidatus Liberibacter, responsible for a bacterial disease known as Huanglongbing (HLB) or greening. “It is considered the most important, serious and destructive pathology of citrus fruits in the world,” reads the contingency plan prepared by the ministry earlier this year. “Most infected trees die within 3 to 10 years and there is no cure. It is estimated that this disease affects more than 100 million trees in the world.
HLB is present in the five main citrus producing countries (China, Brazil, India, Mexico and the USA) where it causes an enormous economic impact. Spain, the world's sixth largest citrus producing country, is seriously threatened, as are the rest of the citrus growing regions still free of the disease.
At the moment, there is an expansion in northern Spain and along almost the entire Atlantic coast of Portugal of Trioza erytreae – the insect vector of the most benevolent African strain of HLB. The first outbreaks were detected in the Canary Islands (2002), and on the peninsula, in Galicia, in the provinces of Pontevedra and A Coruña, and in restricted areas of Lugo and Ourense. Recently, its distribution has expanded in the Cantabrian coast, in Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country. The measures range from border controls, insecticides, the possibility of introducing resistant varieties to field inspection, along with a long series of preventive protocols.
However, we must remain alert because, for the first time, Diaphorina citri has been detected in EU territory, which is the Asian vector that is the most efficient carrier of the most aggressive and lethal strain for citrus fruits. According to the Spanish Citrus Interprofessional Intercitrus, if the bacteria spread, it could end national production in a few years.
Will breakfast with orange juice and bread with oil end up being a luxury?
