Owning an aircraft carrier that is nuclear powered and capable of carrying atomic weapons is still an attribute of great power on the world chessboard. France aspires to remain so, despite the internal weaknesses that the current political and social crisis over the pension reform has revealed.
Over the next few years, Paris will make a considerable financial effort to increase its defense spending. It is no longer just a question of grandeur, of maintaining a self-imposed status as a country, but of responding to the new geopolitical reality created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
One of the most eloquent symbols of French military power will be the construction of a new aircraft carrier that will replace the current Charles de Gaulle. It will take at least 15 years for the ship to be operational, but it is a project of such magnitude that the preparations and the budget forecast begin now. The cost of it is estimated at 10,000 million euros.
According to the Minister of the Armies, Sébastien Lecornu, the future aircraft carrier will be "a cathedral of technology and human qualities". In a recent interview with Le Parisien, Lecornu recalled that only the Americans and the French are in a position to build aircraft carriers powered by nuclear mini-reactors.
According to current plans, work on the new aircraft carrier will begin in late 2025 or early 2026. Sea trials will take place in 2036 and 2037.
The French Government considers it necessary to have an aircraft carrier of these characteristics so that the country continues to be respected and does not depend on anyone. Another factor that justifies this naval projection are the overseas departments and territories spread across the planet, from French Guiana, in South America, to the archipelagos of Mayotte and La Réunion, in the Indian Ocean, or New Caledonia and French Polynesia, In the pacific. Guaranteeing French sovereignty over such vast areas requires a deterrent military presence. France also has more than 11 million square kilometers of exclusive economic zones in the seas and oceans, the second country in the world after the United States with the largest maritime area to control.
The aircraft carrier is only the smallest part, although very showy, in the investments. The French defense roadmap is contained in the Military Programming Law (LPM) for the period 2024-2030, recently approved by the Council of Ministers and already in parliamentary proceedings. The cost will be 413,000 million euros in six years, figures never seen before. Despite the corrective effect of inflation, this is remarkable growth. Compared to 2017, the year in which President Emmanuel Macron arrived at the Elysee, in which the expense in defense was 32,000 million euros, in 2030 it will reach 69,000 million, more than double.
Since the days of General De Gaulle, France has always aspired to strategic autonomy and to act as a "balancing power" on the international scene. NATO membership is not incompatible with this attitude, although it has sometimes caused tensions. Paris asserts its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which gives it the right of veto, and is the only country in the European Union with its own nuclear arsenal. These factors allow it, in theory, to maintain a face-to-face dialogue with an ally like the United States or with Russia and China.
The increase in defense spending when savings are decreed in other areas –for example in the pension system– is controversial, even more so when the radical left has a very large and noisy parliamentary group. It is the old dilemma between guns or butter. Lecornu has anticipated the criticism and the populist temptation of his opponents. For the minister, "it is absurd to oppose our collective security to our social model", and recalled that social spending in France represents 30% of GDP while that dedicated to defense is only 1.9% (it will be 2% in 2025).
As paradoxical as it may seem, the 2024-2030 Military Programming Law has received criticism from conservative deputies and the related press because, in an exercise of priorities, and despite budgetary growth, it includes sacrifices in some areas. Material renewal and new purchases will be delayed in some cases or volume will be reduced. The Army will have fewer Griffon and Jaguar armored vehicles than it wanted. The same will happen with the Navy, which will have fewer frigates. The Air Force will have to settle for fewer Rafale fighter-bombers and A400M transport planes.
The war in Ukraine has shown the shortcomings of all European armies, including the French, after many years of insufficient investment due to the –erroneous– belief that there was no serious threat in Europe. There is a general opinion among military experts and former senior commanders who express themselves in the media that France would be incapable of resisting a high-intensity conventional war like the one in Ukraine for several months. It lacks basics like tanks and ammo. Even investment in the coming years will not fill the deficit, although the situation is expected to improve.
Some very sensitive aspects of military planning and budgeting remain secret, especially those relating to nuclear weapons. It is public knowledge that the new aircraft carrier will be designed to take on board Rafale fighter-bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. They are the so-called Strategic Air Forces. The other component of the French atomic deterrent is the Strategic Oceanic Force, made up of four submarines each carrying 16 intercontinental missiles with multiple nuclear warheads. At least one of them is always on patrol.
For the coming years, investment in ammunition for artillery, anti-aircraft defense, drones, cutting-edge technologies, cyber defense and space defense is vital, in addition to almost 50,000 million in maintenance and fine-tuning of material already available so that it is operational in case of crisis.
The French military-industrial complex generates considerable economic activity and employs some 200,000 people working in 26,000 companies, some of which are small in size, that have awarded contracts. Rearmament, therefore, is not only seen as an imperative of national security and geopolitical weight, but also as a revitalizing factor for a highly relevant sector of the French economy and its export potential.
