If fuel and food are two of the major factors causing the great inflationary escalation that we are still experiencing, in October their effect has been the opposite and is what has allowed us to maintain a rate of 3.5%, the same as last month. past and also confirming the data advanced two weeks ago by the INE.
A good figure that is accompanied by underlying inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food, which is reduced by six tenths, reaching a still high 5.2%. A rate that usually indicates the underlying price trends and in this case is the lowest since June of last year.
In the case of fuel, prices fell compared to October of last year, and in the case of food, they moderated their increase, which remained at 9.5%, one point less than in September. They had been growing at double-digit rates for two months, and the last time they fell in the interannual rate was in January 2015. Another interesting fact, it is the first time that they have grown less than 10% since March since 2022. At that time, it began a continuous climb, which peaked in February of this year with 16.7%, and since then began a slow deceleration. Therefore, take a break when looking at food prices, more because of the trend they show than because of the practical effect of going to the supermarket.
Many foods continue to have very high prices, especially the rise in olive oil, which increases by 73.5% compared to October of last year. And if we compare from March to 2021, the increase in olive oil has been 150.7%. Rice also rises strongly; fruit and vegetable juices; jams, jams and honey; the potatoes; ice cream and breakfast cereals. All of them increase their price between 16% and 17%.
For next year, the forecasts are more difficult to establish, given that there is a great unknown in the air, whether or not the anti-inflation measures that end on December 31 will be extended. Its impact on inflation is considerable. A total withdrawal on January 1 would mean an additional increase in inflation of 1.5% in 2024, according to Funcas calculations, which may further stimulate the future Government to apply a partial and, above all, more gradual withdrawal.
The Ministry of Economy highlights that "it is one of the lowest inflation rates and highest growth in the euro zone, which has favored greater competitiveness of Spanish companies and the gain in purchasing power of salaries."
The prices that fell the most compared to last year were other edible oils, 29.5%, butane (-26.2%) and electricity (-22%). In general, these positions are occupied by energy elements, such as natural gas and city gas (-19%), liquid fuels (-14.4%) or diesel (-3.9%).
