The Kid is back. In recent weeks, the temperature of the central and eastern Pacific has increased and half the world, if not the entire world, is wondering about the severity and extent of the new episode of this climatic phenomenon.
The first warnings that El Niño was in the growth phase were published last April and now its existence has been confirmed, with the data for the month of May, by the Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA (Atmospheric and Climate Administration of USA).
NOAA recalls that the disturbance, officially called El Niño Northern Oscillation (ENSO), "is a natural climatic phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near from the equator, which occurs on average every 2 to 7 years".
In large areas, this phenomenon is associated with increased temperatures, but the impacts of El Niño on the climate extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean and its effects are regionally very disparate, from droughts and floods, to changes in the location of hurricanes. .
"Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a variety of impacts, including increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and drought in certain parts of the world," said Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center. "Climate change may exacerbate or mitigate certain El Niño-related impacts. For example, El Niño could generate new temperature records, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño."
The data for the month of May and the first week of June indicate temperatures 0.5 ºC higher than the climatic average in this area of the Pacific, which is why the existence of a moderate El Niño episode is considered (level 3.4). However, observed data and models indicate that this warming will continue to grow in the coming months.
"In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen in the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24, as shown in the graph below," NOAA indicates.
NOAA recalls that "the influence of El Niño in the US is weak during the summer and more pronounced from late fall through spring." "By winter, there is an 84% chance that El Niño will be greater than moderate in strength, and a 56% chance that a strong El Niño will develop. Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.El Niño winters they also provide better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern United States," says this state agency.
The anticipated appearance of El Niño has forced changes to the 2023 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook report issued by NOAA last month. El Niño conditions generally help reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic, while the presence of El Niño generally favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins.
The climatologist and specialist in climate change Javier Martín Vide, professor of Physical Geography at the University of Barcelona, recalls that, with the known data and the studies carried out to date, it should be considered that "the El Niño signal in Spain/ Catalonia is weak." The appearance and growth of a new episode of this phenomenon, "in any case, must correspond to a temperature somewhat higher than normal [in our country], as in the entire planet, and, perhaps, in the face of autumn/winter , to more generous rains".
Javier Martín Vide, points out, on the other hand: "I have always been surprised that the most intense El Niño of the 20th century (1982-83) coincides with the Tous reservoir (October 1982) and the torrential rains in the upper Segre basin (November 1982)".
The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has echoed the information published by NOAA and has recalled studies that indicate a certain correlation between the appearance of El Niño and rainy autumns in Spain, although it warns that this does not should be taken as a forecast for next fall."
