Spain will close 2023 as one of the fastest growing countries in the entire Eurozone, in a much gloomier scenario for the vast majority of economies. The European Commission's forecasts estimate that Spanish GDP will increase by 2.4%, in line with what the government projects, although that for 2024 worsens, which will be 1.7%, two tenths less than anticipated in September.
The strong momentum of the Spanish economy during the year, especially during the first half, will allow the country to close 2023 with a much better forecast than what was calculated a few months ago. In each new forecast, the European Commission has been improving the data for Spain, the one that is growing the most of the large economies.
Spanish growth was notable in the first quarter, with an expansion of 0.6%, and then continuing with 0.4%. By the end of the year, it is confirmed that it will be reduced, because despite the good progress of tourism, demand from other countries has decreased.
In 2024, Spain, in line with the rest, will grow less than previously forecast, 1.7% (compared to 1.9% two months ago) in which domestic consumption will be one of the main economic drivers, thanks to that inflation will also gradually reduce. Likewise, they will also push the funds of the recovery plan, in which Spain is the most advantaged student. More than a year from now, Brussels predicts that Spain will grow again in 2025 with a GDP of 2%.
Inflation will continue to be high, but will be reduced, with 3.6% in 2023, thanks to the moderation of energy prices, although it will not decrease to 2.1% until 2025, the same as the Bank's calculations European Central. Regarding unemployment, Spain will remain the country with the highest rate in the entire European Union: 12.1% in 2023 and 11.6% in 2024, practically double the average of the Twenty-seven.
Much worse are the forecasts for a large majority of European countries, with Germany in the lead, which, as already anticipated, will close 2023 with a contraction of 0.3%, although it will improve in 2024, with 0. 8%. “The European economy has lost its momentum” this year, admits the Community Executive. Inflation, despite its reduction and the interest rates that have put pressure on the economies, in addition to a reduction in external demand, will lead to very timid growth projections in the Eurozone and the EU of 0.6% this year , two tenths less than expected in summer.
According to the Executive's calculations, starting in 2024 the GDP will improve by 1.3% for the Twenty-Seven as a whole and 1.2% in the Eurozone. Among the large euro economies, France will grow a timid 1% in 2023, while in Italy it will be 0.7%. If the entire group of countries is taken into account, Greece will also close 2023 with 2.4% the same as Spain, and only Croatia will grow more, with 2.6%.
In these forecasts, and for the first time, the state of the economies of the candidate countries to join the EU is also analyzed. Ukraine will end 2023 with GDP growth of 4.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024, after falling 29% in 2022, following the outbreak of war due to Russia's invasion. Aid from countries that support Ukraine, grain exports - with an especially good year in the harvest of what is known as the “breadbasket of the world” - and economic stimuli from the Kyiv government have led to greater than expected growth. .
