After two days of a deadly military offensive, the Azerbaijani government has announced that it is in control of the Armenian-majority separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which for three decades had resisted being governed by Baku. Azeri Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov told the UN Security Council on Thursday that talks had begun with representatives of ethnic Armenians about the area's reintegration into the majority Muslim country.
Azerbaijan's military operation on Wednesday forced Nagorno-Karabakh forces to accept a humiliating ceasefire agreement that has fueled calls for the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Now, the future of its 120,000 ethnic Armenians hangs in the balance: Azerbaijan wants to integrate the breakaway region, but Armenians say the world has abandoned them to a fate that could include ethnic cleansing.
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back to the breakup of the USSR. In 1988 Azerbaijani forces and Armenian separatists began a bloody confrontation after the Nagorno-Karabakh regional parliament voted to join Armenia. in which between 20,000 and 30,000 people died after the Nagorno Karabakh regional parliament voted in favor of becoming part of Armenia. After the independence of both countries, a large-scale war began in 1991 that lasted until 1994, causing the death of between 20,000 and 30,000 people.
After a ceasefire mediated by Moscow, the conflict is frozen with a situation in favor of the Armenians, who not only gain control of the territory, but also the adjacent territory belonging to Azerbaijan.
The region officially remains part of Azerbaijan, but in practice it becomes a ghost state with a separatist government backed by Yerevan.
Azerbaijan regained control of territory surrounding the region in a six-week war with Armenia in 2020. A Russian-brokered armistice ended the war and a contingent of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers was sent to the region to monitor the situation.
The agreement left the region's capital, Stepanakert, connected to Armenia only by the Lachin corridor, a narrow strip that is the only economic lung of the region, totally dependent on its ally to survive. Russian peacekeepers were supposed to ensure free movement along the corridor. But a blockade by Azerbaijan has been depriving Nagorno-Karabakh of basic supplies for the past 10 months, prompting accusations of attempted ethnic cleansing by Armenians.
"Literally the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, including Stepanakert and other cities and settlements, was attacked with intense and indiscriminate shelling, missiles, heavy artillery, prohibited cluster munitions, combat drones and other aircraft," he denounced to the Council on Thursday. of Security the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Ararat Mirzoyan. The operation, according to Yerevan, left more than 200 dead and 400 injured and forced some 10,000 to leave their homes.
The war comes at a time when Azerbaijan feels strong. Although Russia is Armenia's traditional ally, Moscow and Baku have improved their relations while Yerevan has tried to maintain an increasingly distinctive profile. Especially after the coming to power of Nikol Pashinián, who led the anti-government protests in 2018.
The current prime minister recently said that Armenia's dependence on Russia as the only source of security was a "strategic mistake" and after the invasion of Ukraine he has sent humanitarian aid to Kyiv. Earlier this month, Yerevan announced that it was organizing joint exercises with US forces, something Moscow described as an "unfriendly" step.
On the other hand, Europe wants to maintain peace with Azerbaijan, so it will probably keep a low profile regarding the conflict. The need to find alternative energy sources to Russian gas has led Europeans to become good customers of the small country, from where it imports 8 billion cubic meters of gas.
Despite the capitulation of the Armenian separatists, it is still too early to know if we are facing the last stages of the long conflict. Tempers among Armenians are running high. More than 80 people were arrested this Friday in Yerevan, including two parliamentarians and the son of a former president, on the fourth day of protests against Pashinyan over the capitulation of Nagorno-Karabakh and Yerevan's refusal to get involved in a direct conflict with Baku.
Pashinián himself stated today that there is hope for an improvement in the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, although he stressed that it remains "extremely tense." It does not seem that the Armenian prime minister has any intention of taking the route of force.
On Thursday, on the occasion of Independence Day, he assured that the country has to go through a difficult path towards peace. "This path is not easy, it goes through external and internal shocks, and we must travel it for the good of independence, for the good of the State and for the good of our future," Pashinián said in a video message.
Pashinian had previously said that there are currently forces trying to "drag Armenia into a war." "But they are not going to achieve it," he assured then, adding that "no matter how difficult it may be on an emotional level, external forces should not be given the opportunity to "jeopardize" the existence of the Armenian State.
