There is no single formula for the left to access government in European countries. Life in that part of the political spectrum is always precarious and hectic. Since the alliance between the working classes and the professional and meritocratic classes was broken at the turn of the century, the moderate left has had to navigate complex coalitions, whether with centrist groups, parties further to the left, environmentalists or nationalists. Of the five European executives in which a socialist governs, Germany (Olaf Scholz), Denmark (Mette Frederiksen) and Spain (Pedro Sánchez) are a good example of this model, adapted to the realities of each country. (Labour's Robert Abela alone governs little Malta).
Precisely because of this fragility, António Costa's absolute majority in the Portuguese Parliament was so special. The prime minister resigned on Tuesday after police searched the presidential residence and the headquarters of two ministries (Environment and Infrastructure) in search of evidence of corrupt practices related to the energy sector. Costa had governed comfortably (a majority of 117 seats out of 230) since the January 2022 elections. That majority was the result of having swallowed up his former government partners in the two previous legislatures, the radical left of the Bloco and the still active Portuguese communism. In the end, disagreements between the partners over Costa's policies precipitated those elections.
But disagreements with old allies did not deactivate António Costa's prestige as a politician specializing in pacts. The absolute majority culminated, in fact, the long socialist hegemony that began in 2015, in which the left knew how to move quickly and pragmatically. As soon as he arrived, he ended the austerity policy applied by the Portuguese right after the financial rescue of the European Union. Costa reversed cuts in public administration. It was not a return to the past. It was just some light touches and the recovery of civil servants' salaries. But enough to change the mood of Portugal.
His allies in the Government wanted more. They always reproached him for not being more generous with social spending. But he was a pragmatist and a more liberal socialist and less social democrat than he appeared. Then came tourism, thanks to which Costa surfed on an economy that was deindustrializing at high speed. People began to talk about a Portuguese economic miracle. But the covid arrived, which knocked out tourism and the government had no choice but to approve tax cuts to attract "digital nomads" and promote an economic policy that prioritized low-wage jobs in the service sector. That meant the definitive lack of love with his allies further to the left, who broke the coalition.
Gabriel Magalhaes says that it was precisely the absolute majority that may have led to the ruin of the Costa government. It's possible. In Mediterranean governments, whether left-wing or right-wing, absolute majorities are always the gateway to commissions and corruption. In the last two years this unwritten law has seemed to be verified. Costa has seen twelve casualties among senior officials in his government, three of them for the management of Portugal's public flag airline, TAP. Now the focus of the controversy is on energy. In lithium, that critical mineral for the European green transition, of which Portugal is a rich country. And in green hydrogen. In both cases, Costa's environment would have favored some of the operators who opt for investments well-watered with European Union funds.
The Portuguese are still surprised today. They see the existence of corruption within the socialist government as plausible. But they also seem perplexed. They find it hard to believe that António Costa participated in all of this. Some, even from the right, point out that everything is part of a case of "lawfare" - a term increasingly known in the Iberian Peninsula - instigated by a judiciary with special autonomy and a right powerless to reach the government in any other way. . But even so, this hypothesis is risky. The Portuguese political right - even the extreme right of Chega - is calmer than that of the country next door. Also the rules. The quick resignation of António Costa is also unusual in Mediterranean countries. And a lesson for Spanish politicians.
The Portuguese president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, must now decide whether to call elections. It is most likely. Costa says he leaves surprised by the accusation and, he says, with a clear conscience. His political career, in any case, is over. He does not plan to run in the next elections. And his candidacy to succeed Charles Michel on the European Council is fading. António Costa is leaving and with him goes one of the assets - perhaps the most solid - of the socialism that governs Europe.
