Portugal has told us that even the calmest countries can vote far right in the current phase of low wages and high rents. Early elections have been called in Catalonia, where there are many low salaries and high rents. The plenary session of Congress has given the first green light to the Amnesty law. The 2023 budgets have been extended while waiting to know the Catalan vote after the amnesty. Isabel Díaz Ayuso is moving away from the possibility of leading a candidacy for the presidency of the Government of Spain. Vladimir Putin reminds us that he has the atomic weapon ready, and Emmanuel Macron has just announced that there are also French troops ready to be sent to Ukraine. All in less than a week. It's not little.
Portugal veers to the right, warning Pedro Sánchez that the Koldo bill may be high. Higher than the amnesty bill. People who earn low salaries and have to pay high rents are not up for more disappointment. Consolidation of Alberto Núñez Feijóo as leader of the opposition thanks to Galicia and Ayuso's familiarity with the commission agents.
The Amnesty law leaves Congress accompanied by a reorganization of the electoral calendar that could simplify the next three years. This sudden reorganization of political time is brought about by an electoral call that aims to save ERC from the drought and the return of Carles Puigdemont. The bad moods of next summer could definitively burn Esquerra, returning it to the condition of an eternally subaltern party to the convergent gene.
Week of mud and readjustment of expectations. Week in which war rhetoric continues to rise in Europe, which will soon demand, more explicitly, a review of public spending for greater investment in weapons and soldiers.
Theme for the 2025 budget, which means that Spanish politics has half a year to adapt to the coordinates that arise from the risk of defeat of the Western bloc in Ukraine. There could be two paths: the definitive decomposition of the current political cycle, or a delicate and difficult sum of forces, sensitivities and interests that range from socialist pragmatism connected with the military industry to the five deputies of Podemos. An almost impossible arc that goes from Indra to the Garibaldi Tavern. Disintegration of the legislature or a laborious recomposition of the investiture pact once the relationships of power that actually exist in the Basque Country and Catalonia have been verified. From this point of view, the Catalan electoral advance can be very clarifying. When the name of the president of the United States and the final composition of the new European Commission are known at the beginning of November, all the electoral duties will already be done in Spain.
The Catalan advance, which has once again upset Madrid DF, would not have been carried out without the consent of Sánchez and the PSOE, who had the approval of the Catalan budgets at the last minute in their hands. Nobody called Salvador Illa to give in. Nobody called Jéssica Albiach to back down.
Sergio Lorenzi, a good political observer, tells me: “Sánchez, with all the Chinese plates in motion. His ability is almost legendary, but the double electoral spring could end in disaster.”
