Why has Pere Aragonès changed three of his ministers? Reshaping the government and calling elections are the two most valuable tools of a president to give a boost or to catch his rival off guard. After 28-M and the loss of 300,000 votes, ERC tries to catch its breath. To apply plaster to the patient, it is necessary to have a diagnosis of the evil that afflicts him.
The initial reaction of the Republicans was panic at a possible flight of votes towards Junts. In a calmer analysis, they verified that their constituents had not changed sides, but rather decided not to vote. But the demobilization is also worrying and there could be a surprise from Junts to ERC on 23-J.
Are the three premises promoted by Oriol Junqueras in question? The first, to extend the party to social sectors close to other formations and to enter the metropolitan area with some signings such as Gabriel Rufián; second, the dialogue with the central government after the disaster of the unilateral route (the pardons were the climax), the so-called pragmatic turn and, third, the management of the Government.
There is no amendment to all of these three guidelines, although there are internal voices that question some of them as a result of 28-M and that conclude that the demobilized voter misses a speech with a more pro-independence accent. But there is a limited turn. Hence, ERC presents itself with Bildu to the Senate and also the incorporation of Teresa Jordà as number two for Congress, making a tandem with Rufián, very identified with the dialogue with the PSOE. Junqueras defends Rufián without fissures, but has separated Carolina Telechea (who came from the PSC) to incorporate Jordà, indisputable within the party and with a pro-independence pedigree. (There may be some more nod to border voters with Junts, although they come from negotiations undertaken before 28-M).
For his part, President Pere Aragonès has taken advantage of the departure of Jordà, minister of Acció Climàtica, to change the heads of two more departments, Education and Territory, both of which are very worn out. Educational personnel attended ERC rallies to protest, and the Republicans consider its implementation in this area too valuable to put it at risk. The three new ministers are pata negra, an internal code message from the party: Anna Simó (disabled by 1-O), Ester Capella (former deputy in Congress, of proven fidelity to the initials) and David Mascort (head of ERC in Girona ). Nothing to do with the previous change.
When Junts left the Government, in October, Aragonès followed the plan to open new sectors with Joaquim Nadal, of the PSC; Carles Campuzano, from Convergència, and Gemma Ubasart, from Podemos. It was about corroborating the idea that it was not necessary to have Junts inside the Executive to govern for the "entire Catalonia" that the president proclaims. Instead, those appointed yesterday are the party's old guard. The message that is inevitably conveyed is to retreat, back to the fort.
Does this mean that ERC renounces those three premises of Junqueras? Not for now. Management is still aware that the approaches of 2017 would not work today. But we will have to see what happens on 23-J in its competition with Junts and if the PP governs, which would conclude the dialogue. In this case, the Government of the Generalitat may be tempted to become something like what Isabel Díaz Ayuso is today against Pedro Sánchez. In the past, ERC lived very well –electorally speaking– against the PP
