Who has more pressure on his head, Monsieur Fabien Galthié, blue coach, or Ian Foster, head coach of the All Blacks (with an expiration date at the end of 2023, when Scott Robertson will replace him)? France and New Zealand, the host and the planetary reference for rugby (like Brazil for soccer), open today in Saint-Dennis (9:15 p.m.) the tenth edition of the World Cup, the most equal, a priori, in history. And a long one, since it will last for 51 days, until the final on October 28 at the Stade de France.
Not talking about the All Blacks as favorites would be practically sacrilege. Only by pedigree and technical superiority, they are the candidates in each edition, and this is confirmed by the bookmakers (ahead of France and South Africa) and the preferences of the fans, but... the kiwis have never been as vulnerable as this season, in which they have left the top 3 in the world ranking (led by Ireland, South Africa and France).
No team has managed expectations better or for longer than New Zealand, beyond its three world titles (1987, 2011 and 2015) and its almost permanent presence in the final phases – runner-up in 1995 and semi-finalist in another 4 of the 9 disputed. But, for better or worse, no All Blacks defeat is ignored or easily forgotten, and not even two weeks ago they suffered the biggest defeat in their history, by 28 points, against the South African Springboks (35-7), the current champions. A beating that undermined the team's confidence and that has made its rivals begin to smell blood.
Although they already suffered a historic setback between 2021 and 2022 with embarrassing defeats – three in a row for the first time in 24 years – against France (40-25, in November 2021, the largest blue victory), Ireland (two, in July 2022 ), South Africa (August 2022) and even Argentina (18-25, August 2022), the All Blacks recovered from that national debacle.
They teamed up around the questioned Foster and captain Sam Cane and went 11 games in a row without defeat (10 wins, one draw), only interrupted by that resounding 35-7 with the Springboks at Twickenham.
“Everyone knows the history of this team, the importance of this jersey and the responsibility it entails; It can be a weight, but more often than not, it is a force that allows you to overcome any type of pressure,” explained former Kiwi flyhalf Simon Mannix.
But epic and legend are not enough. The current All Blacks appear in Paris lame, injured second row Brodie Retallick – a physical wonder of 2.04 and 123 kg with an incredible technique for his size – and third row Shannon Frizell. An absence – ensured in the opening match – that does not help them impose their usual game of physical dominance over the rival, which is why they are at a disadvantage against the strength exhibited by South Africa and France.
To this we must add a notable absence: that of a group leader. “That's what surprises me most about New Zealanders, the lack of a true leader,” said former French coach Pierre Berbizier. Thus, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter or Jerome Kaino have not found succession in exceptional players. Even so, New Zealand is the only team that has never lost a match in the group stage of a World Cup.
They will fight with France for the leadership of group A; so that bleus and All Blacks – if they do not allow themselves to be surprised by Italy, Uruguay and Namibia – will play the order for the quarter-final match against the first in group B, the fire or the embers, the champion South Africa and the number world one Ireland, winner of the Six Nations.
For France, the challenge is huge: to win its first World Cup after three failed finals (the last one was in 2011, with the Kiwis). The French XV, encouraged by the 2022 Six Nations, has built a solid group around Antoine Dupont (considered the best player in the world by The Telegraph in the list of 100), Grégory Alldritt and Damian Penaud. In their favor, the confidence of having won all domestic games (9 in a row) since November 2021; On the other hand, the pressure of not being able to fail at home on their tenth attempt.
“We feel invested in a mission, we all have this responsibility to do something great to win this World Cup. Of course there is some pressure, because of what is expected of us and the hope of the people, but the pressure is less high than our ambition,” Dupont summarized.
In the other groups the current champion and Ireland (B) are favourites, with the permission of Scotland; Wales and Australia in C, and England in D, with Japan and Argentina bidding for second place.
