Climate change has become an obstacle, in some cases insurmountable, to the solution of problems such as hunger, poverty, diseases, scarcity of drinking water or the availability of clean energy. The quantification of these negative effects is evident in the new inter-institutional assessment United in Science, a report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (official entity of the UN) on the status of compliance with the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
The first assessment of this report indicates that "only 15% of the SDGs are being adequately advanced. The publication sets out the contributions of meteorological, climate and hydrological sciences to the achievement of objectives such as food and water security, clean energy, improved health, ocean sustainability and city resilience.
The annual report combines contributions and insights from 18 organizations. Its publication takes place before the celebration of the SDG Summit and the Climate Ambition Summit within the framework of the United Nations General Assembly.
"The year 2023 has shown us with complete clarity that climate change is already here. Unprecedented temperatures are scorching the earth and heating the sea, while extreme weather events wreak havoc across the planet. And although we know that this is "Only the beginning, the global response is clearly insufficient. Meanwhile, halfway to the 2030 deadline by which the SDGs should be achieved, the world is woefully off track," says UN Secretary-General António Guterres .
"Science is essential to finding solutions. It is well known that meteorological, climate and hydrological sciences are the foundation of climate action. However, how these sciences can help make great strides in achieving the SDGs in in all areas does not enjoy as much recognition," says António Guterres in the prologue.
"At this crucial moment in history, midway through the SDGs, the scientific community is working together for the prosperity of people and planet," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
"Revolutionary scientific and technological advances, such as high-resolution climate modeling, artificial intelligence and nowcasting, can drive the transformation that will achieve the SDGs. Furthermore, ensuring that early warnings protect the entire population by 2027 will not will not only save lives and livelihoods, but will also contribute to safeguarding sustainable development," comments the head of the WMO.
The report shows, for example, how weather forecasts help boost food production and bring us closer to zero hunger. Integrating epidemiology and climate information helps understand and predict climate-sensitive diseases. And early warning systems help reduce poverty by giving people the opportunity to prepare and limit the impact.
Between 1970 and 2021, almost 12,000 disasters due to extreme weather, climate and hydrological events were reported, causing more than 2 million deaths and US$4.3 trillion in economic losses. More than 90% of reported deaths and 60% of economic losses occurred in developing economies and undermined sustainable development.
Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by an increase in extreme weather conditions. There is a 66% chance that, in at least one of the next five years, the global annual average near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C, with this probability increasing as the year passes. time.
So far, we have seen very limited progress in reducing the 2030 emissions gap, that is, the difference between the emissions reductions promised by countries and the emissions reductions needed to achieve the temperature target set in the Paris Agreement. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels increased by 1% globally in 2022 compared to 2021, and preliminary estimates for the period from January to June 2023 indicate a further increase of 0.3%.
To get things back on track and be in a position to meet the Paris Agreement goals of keeping warming well below 2°C and preferably limiting it to 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 30% and 45% respectively by 2030, and CO2 emissions must approach net zero by 2050. This will require rapid and large-scale systemic transformations.
Some of the changes that the climate will experience are inevitable, and perhaps irreversible, but every fraction of a degree and every ton of CO2 is important to limit global warming and achieve the SDGs, the report explains.
"Science continues to show that we are not doing enough to reduce emissions and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement - as the world prepares for the first global stocktake at the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 28) "At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), we must be more ambitious and active, and we must all really work to transform our economies through a just transition to a sustainable future for people and the planet." said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
State of the science (IPCC, UNEP, WMO, Global Carbon Project, Met Office, WCRP)
Total CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels increased by 1% worldwide in 2022 compared to 2021. This was mainly due to increased oil consumption associated with the recovery of the aviation sector. According to preliminary estimates, global CO2 emissions from fossil sources between January and June 2023 were 0.3% higher than the same period in 2022.
The probability that one of the next five years will be the warmest on record is 98%. The IPCC predicts that long-term warming (20-year average) could reach the 1.5°C level set in the Paris Agreement by the early 2030s.
Under current mitigation policies, an estimated global warming of about 2.8°C relative to pre-industrial levels will occur over the course of this century. Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced immediately by unprecedented magnitudes.
SDG 2: Zero Hunger (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))
It is estimated that nearly 670 million people could go hungry in 2030, in part due to an increase in extreme weather events that disrupt all pillars of food security (access, availability, utilization and stability).
Global investments must be made in meteorological, climatic and hydrological sciences and services throughout the agri-food value chains, as they allow farmers to make decisions that enhance food and nutritional security, for example, regarding crops. or to planting and sowing.
Early warnings are crucial for anticipatory action to help protect agricultural livelihoods and identify potential areas of crop failure that may lead to emergency situations.
SDG 3: Health and well-being (WMO and World Health Organization (WHO))
According to the IPCC, climate change and extreme events – such as heat waves – will significantly increase health problems and premature deaths. Furthermore, rapid urbanization multiplies the population at risk. For example, air pollution is one of the main threats to health in urban environments and is associated with almost seven million premature deaths per year.
Transdisciplinary research is essential to analyze, monitor and address climate-sensitive health risks and their implications in the health sector. Combining epidemiological and health data with climate and meteorological information can inform policies on climate-sensitive communicable diseases (such as malaria and dengue) and non-communicable diseases.
Scaling up investments in low-carbon, climate-resilient health systems and progress towards universal health coverage are critical to achieving SDG 3.
SDG 6: Clean water and sanitation (WMO and UN-Water)
Climate change is exacerbating water-related hazards such as floods and droughts. Changes in rainfall patterns, evaporation rates and water storage pose significant challenges for sustainable water resource management.
In more than 60% of countries, hydrological monitoring capabilities are inadequate and declining. However, scientific and technological advances, such as drones, artificial intelligence and space technology, open the door to the adoption of integrated data-driven water management policies and practices.
Promoting scientific collaboration, financial investments and the exchange of data and information will be critical to making informed decisions that accelerate the achievement of SDG 6.
SDG 7: Affordable and clean energy (Sustainable Energy for All initiative)
Extreme weather events and climate change threaten the achievement of SDG 7 by changing energy supply capacity and demand, making the transition to clean energy more unpredictable and potentially more expensive.
Energy planning and operations will improve by increasing the timeliness and accuracy of meteorological, climate and hydrological data, science and services. Big data and artificial intelligence can improve the functioning of energy systems.
Challenges remain uneven or low quality of data and limited availability and affordability of data and services.
SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities (WMO and UN-Habitat)
Cities are home to more than half of the world's population, and they generate approximately 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are vulnerable to rising sea levels and storm surges, heat waves, extreme precipitation and flooding, drought and water scarcity, and air pollution.
Integrated urban services across weather, climate, water and environment that are based on the best available science are helping cities achieve SDG 11.
High-resolution observations, forecast models and multi-hazard early warning systems are the fundamental basis of integrated urban services.
SDG 13: Climate action (WMO, Green Climate Fund, UN Climate Change)
Climate change has caused rapid and widespread changes in the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and biosphere that threaten to reverse progress made towards achieving all the SDGs.
Meteorological, climate and hydrological sciences underpin ambitious climate initiatives, as well as the mobilization of climate finance, especially in low-income countries. To support mitigation measures, a new initiative is being launched to monitor greenhouse gases on a global scale.
Stakeholder collaboration, through avenues such as citizen science, is vital.
SDG 14: Underwater life (UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC))
The effects of climate and human activity threaten our oceans and affect marine ecosystems and the communities that depend on them for their food security and livelihoods.
Ocean sciences that address climate issues, including observations of ocean acidification, allow us to better understand the effects of climate on the oceans and contribute to sustainable ocean protection and management strategies. marine ecosystems.
The United Nations Decade of Ocean Sciences for Sustainable Development provides an unprecedented opportunity to mobilize the scientific community and advance ocean-related science.
SDG 17: Partnerships to achieve the Goals (WMO)
Half of the countries say they do not have multi-hazard early warning systems and, when they do have them, their coverage suffers from notable deficiencies.
Meteorological, climate and hydrological sciences underpin effective multi-hazard early warning systems by promoting the physical understanding of hazards, enhancing knowledge of associated risks and impacts, and enabling hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting.
Partnerships between various stakeholders, and in particular the weather, climate and water scientific communities, are essential to deliver early warnings to all and achieve the SDGs.
