The disagreements between the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zalujny, may end in a storm in a teacup, but it is taking place at the worst time, the second winter of the Russian invasion, with no progress on the land front since October 2022 and with the Allies affected by some variant of war fatigue that puts military aid at risk.
The Center for Combating Disinformation, which depends on the National Security Council, issued a warning on Thursday according to which "the foreign media are preparing a disinformation campaign against the top leaders of the State" with the aim of "undermining the politico-military leadership of Ukraine" and "divide Ukrainian society". It sounds childish, but war propaganda is rarely sophisticated. The ad alludes to English-speaking journalists who worked in Moscow during Vladimir Putin's first term, which coincides with Simon Shuster and his Time article published on October 30, in which he describes a gloomy Zelensky, who does not one hears who should be heard, who is outraged at allies and faces serious corruption problems, while discouragement spreads among officials.
Precisely, it was right after that when General Zalujni revealed his concerns to The Economist, thus breaking a military vow of silence. He said the war was reaching a stalemate, contradicting his president's version, and hastened to bring to light not only the differences between them but also the hypothesis that Zalujni would one day become Zelenskiy's political rival.
The general, placed at the head of the General Staff in 2021, was the architect of the defense of Kyiv in anticipation of the Russian invasion and is a popular hero. He has the support of NATO (he attended, unusually, the last meeting of Ukraine's allies in Ramstein, Germany) and is respected by the major American media. During an unexpected visit to Kyiv by the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, on November 20, it seems that the general let himself go at the pleasure and expense of the president. Almost immediately, in an interview with the British newspaper The Sun, Zelenski responded by saying that the military should not enter politics.
Ukraïnska Pravda have spread the "war" between the politician and the military providing details. The president would have bridged Zalujni by dispatching directly with the head of the Air Force, Mikola Oleichchuk, and with the prestigious general Oleksandr Sirski, head of the Land Army, with whom he was recently photographed studying some plans together. At the same time, three commanders close to Zalujni, such as the head of military health, Tetiana Ostashchenko, have been dismissed.
Ukraine could hold elections on March 31, 2024 despite martial law and war (democracy mandates), and Zelenskiy and his entourage fear a Zalujni who in any case has not expressed political ambitions or is a media figure, according to Ukraïnska Pravda , which presents an election poll in which Zelenski would get 47% in the first round today, and Zalujni, 30%. In the second round, Zelenskiy would narrowly win the general election: 42% to 40%.
According to the researcher Konstantín Skorkin, a native of Donbass, at the bottom of the quarrel what lies rather are the responsibilities of the stalemate of the war and the incapacity - confessed by Zalujni, to the great indignation of Zelenski - to advance with the means available to the army. Zalujni, on the other hand, was called to testify in an investigation by the security services, the SBU, about the fall of Kherson province at the beginning of the Russian invasion.
Of course, none of this would have happened if June's counter-offensive had gone moderately well. But it wasn't like that, due to various internal and external factors. Among the former, it is still not clear among military analysts why the Ukrainians got involved in the bloody battle of Bakhmut and devoted their best-prepared forces to it when the enclave was not a capital (as has been shown after the 'occupied by the Russians), when they could have retreated to more favorable defensive positions. A decision that, at least in theory, could respond more to conjunctural political criteria than to military ones, and which ended up allowing the Russians to prepare to thwart the counteroffensive.
Political infighting in Ukraine has been one of the country's biggest problems since its independence in 1991, and that doesn't seem to have changed with the war. Thus, there has been talk of Zalujni's impeachment... But, according to reports, the presidency considers that this would precisely facilitate his electoral candidacy.
