By video conference, in a well-lit hall of the Imam Hussein mosque and with an expectant crowd outside, in Nabatiya, in southern Lebanon, the territory of Hizbullah or the Party of God, Hassan Nasrallah went giving the long-awaited speech yesterday with one that was very cold for some and another that was very hot for others. War, but no war, you could say. Or, in other words, which were long overdue, the war between Hizbullah and Israel has already been taking place since October 8 and there is no need to wait any longer.
This should be enough for the Lebanese population, which is not up for adventures, unless there is a major provocation. Nothing to do with the 33-day war in July 2006, in which Israeli general Dan Halutz's air force shredded Lebanon and yet Hezbollah emerged victorious: the mighty Merkaba tanks jammed when they break into the south of the country, the reservist soldiers were trapped in the villages of southern Lebanon at the mercy of the guerrillas who appeared from tunnels and evacuating them became a humiliating mission.
Hezbollah emerged triumphant from the ashes of the Beirut neighborhood of Daniyah in a way that no one expected and that (aside from the usual propaganda of the politico-military organization, or that of Hamas, according to which they are never defeated, they always win) outraged Israeli leadership and public opinion. Sheikh Nasrallah then emerged as a war leader, at a much greater level than his contemporary and Iraqi Shiite leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, then younger, but very much in the fight against American invader. Al-Sadr and Nasrallah are the two great values of Iran in the "Axis of Resistance" against Israel and the USA, perhaps the first is more conflicting at times, the second is much more decisive due to its proximity to Zionist enemy and the firepower, perhaps 50,000 militiamen. Hence the magnified image of Nasrallah. But not only because of this: his men have fought in a decade of fighting in Syria against the rebellion and the opportunistic by-products of jihadism represented by Al-Nusra (the Syrian version of Al-Qaida) and the Islamic State . It should be remembered that, in the face of the fear of a greater strengthening of Hizbullah, in 2015 Israel welcomed Al-Nusra wounded in hospitals across the Golan. In the same way, Israel has been bombing targets in Syria that respond to Hezbollah's interests, read the Iranian arms traffic. If in 2006 the Shia militia could fire Grad rockets – then even better known as katuixa – and some very erratic Syrian Fajr missiles, the danger to Israel now could be much more serious.
That is why the words of the leader of Hizbullah were expected after so many days of bombing in Gaza.
Nasrallah is a son of refugees from the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990) who emigrated to the south of the country. The young Hassan did not align himself with the prevailing left at that time, but was more attracted to the turbans of the clergy. First associated with the Shiite movement Amal (“hope”), the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 would definitively mark its fate. In 1997 he lost a son in combat, and when Israel withdrew from the country in 2000, Hezbollah and Nasrallah celebrated victory.
Yesterday, the leader had two options: launch the war or cover up. In the first case, it must be assumed that he would agree with Iran. But Nasrallah was careful to say that his great ally had nothing to do with the October 7 Hamas attack (and neither did he). Iran, he said, "does not exercise guardianship" over the leadership of the "Axis of Resistance". He chose, then, to take it for granted that Hizbullah is already at war with Israel (even if it is of low intensity). Will the fans have enough? Nasrallah said that the "sacrifices" lay "the foundations of a new era for the inhabitants of the region", which is in line with Iran's version, according to which "the response of the resistance to the bombings of Gaza will change the map of the occupied territories". And let everyone understand it as they want.
