The Spanish Government still in office anticipates that the record collection it will obtain this year, which will amount to around 275,000 million, will allow it to have an additional cushion to extend some of the aid to fight inflation. Despite the fact that no fiscal margin was reflected in the Budget plan that was sent to Brussels a month ago, the Treasury has an improvement in tax revenues in the last quarter of the year that has already begun to be recorded and that would allow the Executive to maintain some fiscal bonus, Jesús Gascón, María Jesús Montero's number two in the ministry, advanced yesterday.
The Acting Secretary of State for Finance anticipated that tax revenues will improve by 5%, above the pace recorded in recent months, which has been around 4.5%. This increase in the collection rate, he added, can be maintained in the final stretch of the year for different reasons. Firstly, due to a decrease in the stock of tax refunds as a result of a moderation in inflation, according to the forecasts of the Tax Agency. "The growth rate of refunds was 12.7% in September and we think we will drop by 10% in October", pointed out Gascón. It is necessary to add to this a predictable increase in income from personal income tax (more employment and better paid), from companies (thanks to the increase in business profits) and from VAT, in which consumption is expected to improve in final stretch of the year. The number two of Montero added that the improvement in the profits of banks and energy will also increase the collection obtained through the extraordinary levies in both sectors. The Treasury received 2,900 million this year, a figure that is expected to exceed 2024.
At the end of September, the Tax Agency had collected 190,064 million, almost 9,000 million more than in 2022. October is also considered a good month in terms of collection, Gascón pointed out. Last year public coffers increased by 41,864 million in October, a figure that would have been surpassed this year, pending official data. The future Spanish government, therefore, would have enough margin to extend some of the anti-inflation measures, although it is not yet able to specify what this margin will be, added the number two of the fiscal policy.
The Secretary of State for Finance also stated that the decision on which anti-crisis aid in force could be extended or which could be incorporated will be taken in the last days of December, "when the fiscal margin and the price situation are known". However, he detailed that the problem facing the ministry is the impossibility of focusing some aid, such as the VAT reduction on food (the Treasury has stopped receiving 1,294 million until September due to this measure), in which he said that it is "impossible" to charge different rates when going shopping.
The Ministry of Finance yesterday also wanted to reassure the large companies that had shown concern about the reform of the corporate tax of the coalition agreement between the PSOE and Sumar. Montero's number two referred at all times to a reform to tax the "adjusted accounting result" of companies at a minimum of 15%, always "in the terms that have been agreed on a global scale and in the EU ”, in line with the European directive known as “Pillar 2” that Spain is obliged to transpose.
In the coalition pact, only the term accounting result appeared, and not the word adjusted. That is why Gascón insisted yesterday that the objective of the Treasury will be to record the "adjusted accounting result in international terms". Sumar advanced after the agreement that an additional 10,000 million would be raised with a reform of companies, but Treasury sources refused to offer a specific estimate.
Gascón also detailed that a 15% minimum corporate tax will be calculated depending on a standardized international criterion and added that, in the event that a business group pays below this 15% in another country, the Spanish Treasury will will reserve the right to tax this difference. The same will happen with infratax operations in other countries. For example, if a multinational makes an expense in a subsidiary abroad and counts it as income in that country, Spain would have the ability to determine that this income is not deductible. Treasury sources state that incorporating the directive into national regulations "will not take much time" once the future Spanish government is formed.
