The complex parliamentary arithmetic left on 23-J may open a window of opportunity for the PNB, which is experiencing its tightest electoral situation in the last twelve years. The Jeltzales understand that the PSOE and Sumar will have to open the debate on the State model to, first of all, guarantee support for the investiture of Pedro Sánchez and, then, guarantee governability. It is here that the PNB aspires to regain prominence with a possibilistic, but also demanding, discourse on "the recognition of the Basque and Catalan national reality", a path that it hopes will serve to reconnect with a large part of its electorate.
The PNB perceived signs of wear and tear, but did not expect the electoral blowouts of May 28 and July 23. In four years, it has gone from its electoral maximum in municipal elections, over 408,000 votes, to a figure very close to its minimum in local elections, with 86,000 less support. On 23-J achieved its worst result in a general election since 1989, at the time of the split of Eusko Alkartasuna. The blow has been capital, and the question that resonates in the Jeltzal environment is the following: what has happened since the 2019-2020 period for the party to see itself today in an antagonistic situation?
There is no single answer; on the contrary, this decline is due to a cluster of factors: wear and tear by management after exercising power in many institutions, the problems in the Basque Health-Osakidetza System, the response that has been given to local problems that the citizens identified as urgent (two examples: in San Sebastian, housing and mass tourism; in Bilbao, security), the electoral bill for corruption with the De Miguel case, the arrogance with which it has been concluded that certain projects, much questioned, would be done "either yes or no", or the generational changes in Basque society.
A global conjuncture is also converging: unlike in 2019, when a certain stability was experienced after a long crisis, society is perplexed and disgusted by a disturbing accumulation of uncertainties. There is anger, and this factor also weakens an institutional party like the PNB, a trend that contrasts with a strengthening of EH Bildu linked to its pragmatic strategy. The abertzale coalition is achieving, in small steps, its great goal: to establish itself as a credible alternative for a considerable part of Basque society.
The alarms went off in Sabin Etxea on 23-J, although that same night a window of opportunity began to appear. Jeltzal leaders have offered some clues in recent days. The reading is clear: the Catalan and Basque nationalist and independence parties will be key, so that the opportunity opens up for the central government to tackle what they call "the Basque agenda".
The PNB has already stressed that its group in Madrid will once again be decisive, and has its list of demands on the table. The Jeltzales will seek "recognition of the Basque nation" and, at the same time, will try to renew and shield self-government. The Basque nationalists will seek, this time, to transfer the more than twenty pending powers of the Statute of Gernika, a commitment that the Central Executive failed to fulfill last term. In addition, they will prove that this mandate is for the renewal of the Statute of Autonomy.
Among the aspirations of the PNB is also that of shielding self-government, looking for an alternative formula to arbitrate jurisdictional conflicts, or that of favoring Basque - and Catalan - participation in the European project. They will also want to make progress on a symbolic level: for example, the Jeltzales are committed to promoting the participation of some Basque sports teams in international competitions.
The big doubt is whether the PNB will seek a common front with EH Bildu, ERC and Junts or, on the contrary, whether it will maintain a differentiated agenda. Joseba Egibar, president of the party in Gipuzkoa, has spoken of a "four-way" agreement. "To make a new leap, Catalans and Basques must create national opportunities", he indicated. In any case, it is not a simple scheme. Ten months before a Basque election, the rivalry between PNB and EH Bildu is complete, and the Abertzale coalition maintains a strategic alliance with ERC. The Jeltzales, on the other hand, have good relations with sectors of the old convergent space, but not with Puigdemont's circle.
In any case, the PNB believes that the window of opportunity that can be opened will serve to accentuate its political identity, which some sectors see as a bit blurred. During the previous political cycle, Basque society rewarded Jeltzal pragmatism and the party knew how to reach new electoral niches. He received a significant portion of the borrowed vote, which, on the other hand, is always the first to leave. The internal listening process promoted by the PNB a few months ago detected that part of the militancy and its supporters yearn for a greater commitment to key elements of the party's historical identity, from the impulse to the Basque language to the territorial question in relation to Navarre, where EH Bildu has become strong. They also acknowledged that some of the interviewees saw a party that was too "masculine" and "not modern".
The PNB is facing a crucial course in a situation similar to the one it experienced in 2011. Then, Bildu stormed strongly in the municipal elections and, with Aralar, the Amaiur brand surpassed the PNB in deputies in the general elections. The PNB, however, knew how to read the situation. It rebuilt itself and became the party that has led a political cycle marked by the end of ETA. It is clear that the Abertzale coalition is today a more solvent rival; although the key will be if the PNB knows how to read the Basque society of 2023 and plays its cards well, also in the game that is played in Madrid.
