Northern Ireland is like a quicksand swamp littered with bombs that haven't been defused, where it's always too early to sing victory. It has only been eight weeks since the autonomous institutions were re-established after a lapse of two years, but the sudden fall of the main unionist leader is already threatening its ever-precarious stability.
Jeffrey Donaldson, 61, the DUP's top leader, has had no choice but to resign after being arrested - and immediately released on bail - as a suspect in an alleged rape that took place long ago, following the filing of charges by an unidentified person, and the ensuing police investigation.
After a long boycott of the Stormont Assembly and the Northern Ireland Executive in protest at Brexit deals which, in his view, have distanced Ulster from Britain and diluted unionism, Donaldson backtracked at the end of January, when London was poised to take over the reins of the province's government, and acceded to his party's participation in the institutions as number two behind Sinn Féin (former political arm of the IRA).
His fall raises the problem that not all members of the DUP are supporters of a co-government subordinated to their hated historical enemy, who won the last election in the province. And that not everyone considers the concessions from London and Brussels to be sufficient regarding British internal trade to keep the veto on the operation of the autonomous institutions lifted. An influential sector is betting on suspending them again to try to get better Brexit deals for Ulster.
For now, the main Protestant and unionist party, still shaken by the scandal, has opted for stability. Donaldson has been replaced by his number two, Gavin Robinson, a defender of essentially the same policies. But sooner or later an internal election will be needed to choose a new leader, and the appointment of a hawk could raise major complications for the precarious political balance in Belfast.
The unionist community is deeply divided (there were many who disagreed with Brexit, but all the Protestant parties supported it, falling for the trap set for them by Boris Johnson with promises he didn't even try comply), and the allegations against Donaldson could easily open the gap even further. The DUP, the majority group created by Reverend Ian Paisley, is losing votes both to the more radical TUV and to the (non-denominational) Alliance Party.
The overtaking of Sinn Féin, driven by demographic factors (Catholics have more children), could be consolidated in the next British general election, which has not yet been called but which will probably take place in the autumn. Republicans are also favorites to win the majority of votes in next year's elections in the Republic of Ireland, where they face opposition from across the country's establishment.
Unionism has a very serious identity problem, to no longer carry the reins of a province that was created to suit the Protestants. Now, with this bomb, it can get worse.
