Maha Yahya, director of the Malcom H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center and expert on political violence and the migration crisis in the region, attended the Center's "Peace and War in the 21st Century" seminar in March as a speaker of International Affairs (Cidob). During his visit to Barcelona Iahia gave an interview to La Vanguardia to talk about the Palestinian conflict and its possible consequences.
How much longer can the war last?
During these months, 80% of the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, almost 33,000 people have died and, according to the UN, it is estimated that more than 10,000 may be buried under the rubble of what were once houses, schools or hospitals. So as long as the West and the United States do not rein in Netanyahu, the war will continue.
And Netanyahu's leadership ability?
The image of the Prime Minister of Israel was badly damaged after the attacks of 7 October. Among other reasons, Israel's brutality responds to a desire to restore the figure of Netanyahu through some great success in the eyes of Israeli society.
As for the latest moves by European governments like Spain, is it enough?
People in the region are very proud of the position of Spain, Ireland and Belgium, because they have shown to be very clear in terms of what is acceptable and what is not. But much more pressure is needed on Israel, and without a real external force, this conflict will not stop.
Can only the United States and Europe stop this war?
Josep Borrell – EU Foreign Affairs representative – asked himself the other day: how many more Gazans must die for the war to end? When will it be enough? Palestine needs an imminent and complete ceasefire. Many war crimes come directly from the Israeli army itself or from the settlers, against a population that is at risk of starvation, already with dozens of deaths accounted for by the lack of food, water and medicine. The cease-fire must be imminent, only possible through the effort of the United States, which has greater influence on Israel, to tell it enough. They need to stand up, stop the shipment of weapons and impose sanctions.
Is this possible?
There are tools. Look at all the pressure that was immediately brought to bear on Russia. In other words, there are tools that can be used if you want to hold Israel and Netanyahu accountable.
What is the power of neighboring countries such as Egypt, Lebanon or Jordan to press for a ceasefire in view of the passivity of the West?
They have a lot of concerns about what is happening in Gaza, but they have very little influence and are unable to stop it. In addition, Egypt is very worried about the Rafah border, since if it allows the Gazan population to enter, it would be helping Israel in the ethnic transfer, but if it does not, it would be leaving them to their fate. Therefore, these are countries that are under a lot of tension and have a lot of pressure to stop this conflict.
From her position as a teacher and citizen in Beirut (Lebanon), does she see the extension of the war towards the north of Israel as possible?
In Lebanon, Hezbollah changes everything. It has been pushing since the October 7 attacks with clashes on the Lebanese border with Israel and has shown its support for Hamas. But really, he does not want a total conflict with Israel, but follows the directive that Iran sets under a defense strategy.
How is the situation on the southern border of Lebanon?
During these months there has been a tense tug-of-war at the border. One dead from one side, one dead from the other, missile in Sidon (Lebanon), an attack in Haifa (Israel). This kind of exchange of blows has been Hizbullah's strategy until now. A few weeks ago Israel bombed Baalbek, which is already 70 or 80 kilometers inside the Lebanese border, and Hezbollah has not responded.
In addition, Israel has bombarded the border with white phosphorus and caused enormous damage. This material destroys the fertility of the land, which has taken away the ability to earn a living from a traditionally agricultural population; besides it also burns the skin on contact. This is causing a great displacement of the people who lived on the border and at the same time generates fear of a possible escalation of violence, more and more, towards the interior of the country.
Talking about consequences is very difficult without even having a ceasefire on the horizon. But is it possible that this conflict will have a direct effect on the American elections in November?
clearly It may cost Joe Biden the presidency. The Arab-American collective – historically democratic – is an important group in the United States, and they are saying that they will not go to vote. The challenge is that if they don't vote, they automatically increase Trump's chances.
It's a very complex issue. It's dividing people and polarizing discourse. Demonstrations of Jews in support of Palestine happen on the streets of New York, and in Europe, since the beginning of the attacks in Gaza, there are demonstrations every Saturday in London, for example.
And, in Europe, with the European Parliament elections around the corner?
In Europe, the consequences go beyond political repercussions, the space for discussion is being limited. For example, in Germany today it is impossible to have such a debate, which feeds the rhetoric of the most extreme and populist right, which mixes the Palestinian issue with an anti-Muslim and Islamophobic attitude. The echoes of the war in Gaza reverberate in European populist discourses. This is giving rise to the resurgence of Marine Le Pen in France, or the rise of the Flemish extremist bloc in Belgium. We are seeing more radicalization under a narrative based on the difference between us and them, which fuels European populist discourses.
What does the different Western narrative after the Russian invasion of Ukraine evoke for you and the one you are dealing with now with Israel's actions in Gaza?
Sanctions were immediately imposed on Russia, and arms aid to Ukraine has kept us waiting. Meanwhile, when Israel attacks, we look the other way. What would have happened if Russia – just like Israel – had killed 30,000 Ukrainian civilians in the first six months?
