The political future of the Basque Country in the short and even medium term will begin to be decided before the end of the day, once the three unknowns that must be revealed by the elections in the Basque Parliament today are clarified: who will win the elections, who will govern and under what conditions. If Imanol Pradales (PNB) prevails over Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu) in his tight fight and also obtains an absolute majority thanks to the PSE, nothing will have changed in fundamental terms, even more than the distance with the Abertzale coalition can be reduced to the minimum expression. A victory in seats for the independentists, with Jeltzales and socialists outside the majority, on the other hand, would open a new horizon with implications beyond the Basque Country.
The Basque labyrinth, a term coined by the anthropologist and linguist Julio Caro Baroja, maintains some specificities, but its particularities have lost weight and it has become global. Concerns such as the situation of the health system and, in general, of public services, insecurity, security or the price of housing, all very present in the European context and capable of moving governments, have marked the campaign, especially during its first 10 days.
These questions are, moreover, the ones that appear at the forefront of citizens' concerns and will probably be the ones that decide the struggle that is being addressed today. The two formations with a chance of winning tonight - governing will be another matter - have agreed when it comes to interpreting that Basque society is not in total contestation, although they detect concern and a drive that calls for changes .
The PNB has admitted mistakes and proposes a renewal, which would be embodied by this generational relief represented by Pradales, although at the same time claiming the story of its management during the last 40 years and appealing to the risks of a turnaround guided by EH Bildu. "It is at stake to move forward or back in quality of life", they point out. The Abertzale coalition, meanwhile, proposes "a change of cycle", talks about "regeneration", appeals to "hope in the face of uncertainty" and claims a "new policy based on cooperation". The battle is there, in which of these two accounts has just seduced Basque society to face the future.
Self-government was also discussed during the campaign, although always with an instrumental nuance: "More self-government to live better", claimed the PNB; "a new status as a transformation lever to make 21st century policies", proclaims EH Bildu. The two Abertzales formations can exceed 75% of the representation, an unprecedented ceiling, although the desire for independence is close to its historical minimum and, without a doubt, will not decide the elections.
It is also not clear that the question that has marked the campaign in the decisive week, the issue during the memory and the critical review of terrorism, the elephant in the room of Basque politics, should condition the elections. As is known, Otxandiano repeatedly avoided calling ETA a terrorist group in an interview with Cadena Ser on Monday. The PSE, first, and the PNB, then, jumped on him and insisted that these statements portrayed him. "Euskadi needs a lehendakari who condemns ETA", censured Pradales flatly.
The pro-independence candidate reacted by asking "forgiveness" to the victims and sought to focus on the evolution of his training in this field. The big doubt is whether all this controversy has moved the trends that were drawn until Monday, the last day on which polls were published. At the time, almost all polls placed the Abertzale coalition in front, although the fight was very even.
Tonight's first unknown will be clarified from this fight, and it will be necessary to attend to both the victory in seats and the result in votes, since a draw cannot be ruled out. In the current Basque Parliament, the distance between the two formations is 10 seats: 31 out of a total of 75 for PNB, and 21 for EH Bildu.
The Basque nationalists are aware that this gap is history, and the objective is to win, even if it is by the minimum. If they succeed, it is certain that they will govern, although it will be necessary to look at the result of the PSE, the arbiter of Basque politics, to elucidate how: if they will have the 38 seats that give access to an absolute majority or will they have to govern in minority
The situation will be different if the first unknown is clarified in favor of the pro-independence side and EH Bildu wins seats. It would represent an unprecedented symbolic triumph for the Abertzale formation, which would strengthen its current strategy and leave the PNB untouched. In any case, attention should immediately be paid, again, to the result of the PSE; since, in the event that the socialists do not gain a majority with the PNB, a complex panorama would open up.
The Basque nationalists and the socialists would probably try to reproduce a scheme similar to that of the Provincial Government of Gipuzkoa, where they govern in a minority, and the Basque PP would immediately regain its lost relevance. This is a very disturbing medium-term scenario for the PNB, which could have implications in Madrid, given that the populists have already stressed that they will be demanding.
There is also the possibility that EH Bildu will win seats, but that nationalists and socialists will gain a majority. Only the first unknown would be clarified in favor of the Abertzale side, something that would undoubtedly be relevant, but the PNB would be able to govern comfortably and would have four years to recover from the pro-independence overtake.
The only possibility that EH Bildu has to reach Ajuria Enea requires a decisive victory over the PNB, an option that has not drawn any poll. The Jeltzales would have to take a step back and begin a complicated crossing through the desert. It is not a likely scenario, although it is within the realm of possibility. The intensity of the drive for change detected by some polls will decide this unprecedented struggle between a PNB that proposes renewal and the change of cycle proposed by the Abertzale coalition.
